Editorial

    Abstract : Post-Uprising Scene: Future Challenges

 Editor in Chief

Initial data indicates that the political Arab scene will at least witness a major shift in the wake of the completion of the missions of the reformist uprisings. Whilst it's true the Tunisian and Egyptian models have not been copied yet, the main track of revolts in Libya, Yemen and Syria have produced significant supporters of change to the structure and reform approaches to open up the systems and instill greater freedom, justice and equality for their citizens.

A careful reading shows any foreign, especially Western intervention is likely to hamper the Yemeni and Libyan uprisings and their course of reform. In addition, other Arab states are collaborating with the current regimes under pressure so that the wind of change would not move to their territories once they bear fruit.

Uprisings in the Arab World are of three types:

1.     Quick peaceful ones, representing the promising example.

2.     Reform peaceful ones, violently confronted by governments.

3.     Reform protests calling for freedom and democracy, faced by governmental reform procedures.

Therefore, Arab regimes are expected at the end of 2011 to assign priority to three aspects:

1.     Initiating general development, modernization and economic improvement.

2.     Coming up with new, popular and legitimate forms of power, away from frameworks and security interference

Boosting ways of Arab solidarity, economic integration, border openness and more influential and well-organized international role, mainly on the Iraqi and Palestinian levels.

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Research & Studies

Abstract : Middle East Regional Balance under Current Political Shifts

Adnan Al  Hayajneh

The present study investigates the influence of the political shifts, characterized in the revolts as well as public and official activity, on the regional balance of the Middle East. The main question that is raised is: What would be the effect of such local changes on regional order?                                   

It is argued the Arab World’s role in the regional balance of power has diminished due to the regimes' policies which have only been concerned with maintaining their own security. This had been the case since the 1978 Egyptian-Israeli Camp David Agreement even until the Tunisian uprising. The Arab world is likely to stay behind in terms of having any influence as a result of its major internal challenges. On the other hand, Turkey, Israel and Iran will keep in firm regional control in the short term or even longer. However, to restore the Arab position, national reforms need to be accelerated and decision-making mechanisms must be rectified. This way, Arab capabilities should be utilized at least to play a major regional role in deterrence.

 

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Reports And Articles

Abstract : Traditional vs. Alternative Energy

Mohammed El  Khayat

Energy affects and is affected by various aspects of life, such as geography, shopping, politics and economic development. Some experts may argue that energy is subordinate to their specialties, while energy professionals believe that it is the other way round, indicating that various fields and areas of expertise act more like satellites revolving around the center of energy.

Far from such an argument, the present two-part report explores the relationship of energy to geography where the latter yields essential dimension to energy issues in terms of resource location and methods of exploitation. Considerations must be held when it comes to the possibilities of drilling for as well as the transport of said oil. With oil extraction geography, oil may be found in deep land or marine points and extraction is not impossible.

Furthermore, energy is examined in terms of its relationship with politics and sustainable development. Today, one cannot separate the affect of energy on political policies and agendas. Energy has become the primary motivator seen in the language of modern times for which wars are waged and crimes are committed under groundless political tactics. However one cannot ignore that energy is also an integral part of growth and development for society. It is not only associated with direct uses e.g. heating, cooking, and lighting, but also extends to many supporting factors  of sustainable development.

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Abstract : Goldstone Taking back Report: Incorrect Step Backward

Mohammad Al  Mousa

On April 4, 2011 Magistrate Richard Goldstone, former Judge at South Africa’s Constitutional Tribunal and Head of the UN Gaza Fact Finding Commission, published an article in the Washington Post entitled, Reconsidering the Goldstone Report on Israel and War Crimes. It sparked much controversy in the Arab World and upset many international law specialists.

It is argued that the commentary, published in the wake of the Human Rights Council resolution, raises a number of issues questioning the credibility of his own report by attempting to conceal some facts. The article focused on two main points. Firstly, Israel did not, as a general policy, deliberately target Palestinian civilians. Secondly, Hamas must be accountable for its war crimes.

A number of issues in the commentary need to be investigated to determine if the original report, as well as the current status and stable rulings of international law, show that the commentary may be accounted as evidence of the incredibility of the original report from which only a limited number of questions are discussed.

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Seminars

Abstract :Palestinian Reconciliation: Challenges and Future Scenarios

Raeda Abo Eid

In its headquarters in Amman, the Middle East Studies Center held a seminar titled Palestinian Reconciliation: Challenges and Future Scenarios on July 2, 2011. A number of academics and politicians spoke at the seminar chaired by Political Science Professor Dr Ahmed Said Nofal from Yarmouk University.

Three topics were discussed:

1.  Analysis of the Reconciliation Agreement's Political Content and First Weeks' Reality: Challenges vs. Opportunities

2.  Post-Reconciliation Scenarios and Parties' Options

3.  The US and the International Stands against Reconciliation and Effects on Its Success.

They concluded that the agreement is influenced by internal and external factors, making its future track an open one. It has been signed out of mutual feelings of exhaustion of countless rounds of rivalry but which mean there will be no serious reconciliation under these conditions especially on any joint project. However, within the inclusive changes underway in the Arab world, the Palestinian issue is having new opportunities at hand to seize, though cautiously. This must be done hand-in-hand with raising awareness among the Palestinians on the essence of the current problems in inter-Palestinian and Palestinian-Israeli relations.

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Abstract :Reform in Jordan: Popular Demands vs. Political Will

Raeda Abo Eid

The Middle East Studies Center held a seminar titled Reform in Jordan: Popular Demands vs. Political Will where scholars and politicians discussed the issue under the chairmanship of former Prime Minister Ahmed Obeidat.

The seminar highlighted three themes:

1.     Popular Demands in Various Reform Aspects

2.     Political Reform: Theory and Practice

3.     Chances for Success of Political Reform

Participants agreed that what the people are demanding are not mere claims, but legitimate rights based on specific priorities. They want an end to the domination of the security forces over the political and civil life of the country. However, the major problem is the wide gap between peoples’ demands, government promises and the reality on the ground that witnesses no serious attempts at genuine reform but instead procrastination. Although several committees have been formed during the current wave of protests, they have not managed to take any single practical step. There are even people within these committees who reject and resist reform. How could such people come up with results satisfactory to the Jordanian people, it is wondered?

Upon discussing chances for its success in the Kingdom, an initial assessment of the interaction between those that want reform and those in power indicate that this is a golden opportunity to achieve comprehensive long-term political stability in the country. The regime’s political constitutes the touchstone in the reform process. Jordan will definitely be regionally and internationally stronger when its national unity and social coherence are enhanced within a developed, pluralistic and democratic system which serves all its citizens.

 

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Issue Seminar

Abstract : Challenges of Preparing General Budgets and Fairness of Distribution

Yasmine Al Asa'd

The Middle East Studies Center organized a seminar Titled "Challenges of Preparing General Budgets and Fairness of Distribution". Participants agreed that the Arab countries are facing major difficulties in setting up general budgets and the fairness of distributing them among spending fields. These problems, with political corruption taking the lead, result from the lack of a political will to counter administrative and financial corruption spreading over the majority of top administrations in these states. In addition, grants and aid are not utilized in the right way.

The seminar was presented by Eng. Ashraf Badruddin, member of the economic committee at the former Egyptian Parliament, and Dr Mohammad Abu-Hammour, Jordanian Minister of Finance. It was directed by Dr Khaled Ameen Abdullah, former Minister of Planning and dean of the Faculty of Banking and Financial Sciences at the University of Banking and Financial Sciences.

The following were the main recommendations made at the end of the seminar:

1. Monitoring the implementation of the general budget, its final calculations, accomplishments and changes in its articles

2. Maintaining a real, effective partnership between public and private sectors

3. Collecting due taxes, and fighting tax evasion in order to maximize total commercial and industrial taxes

4. Fighting administrative corruption, and choosing competent managers for economic bodies and public corporations.

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Issue Files

Arab Uprising: Wave of Change

 

Abstract : Political and Economic Development in Post-Uprising Egypt

Khyri Omar

The Egyptian political scene witnessed a number of shifts during the uprising and the fall of the Husni Mubarak regime, which may not necessarily bring about major changes in the next few years. However, they will constitute a new foundation for a state of law irrespective of the controversy over its nature. The present report discusses the situation in Egypt in connection with political issues associated with socio-economic transformations as well as Washington’s intention to resume limited contacts with the Muslim Brotherhood, according to Secretary of State Hilary Clinton.

It is concluded by exploring the debate over the new identity of the state as well as the adoption or exclusion of Sharia law and the unlikely reconciliation between Islamist and secular movements over this aspect. The latter are believed to be largely dependent on highly-rich western powers with which they endorse 

The secularization of the state and private sector. This may lead to a political reality supportive of secular-oriented values. Therefore, it is essential to restructure trade relations in a way that serves the national economy and finance short-term policies of recovery.

On the other hand, the US-Brotherhood dialogue raises a controversy over the course of political shifts. The American influence is not only debatable among political parties, but also within political institutions. Therefore, any relation with the superpower is likely to counter a great deal of criticism. Furthermore, any such intervention would lead to re-alignment, not on the basis of ideology, but loyalty to the country and the uprising.

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Abstract : The Approaches of the EU towards Arab Political shifts

Mekhled Mubidin

In the course of exploring the attitudes of the European Union towards political shifts in the Arab World, this report discusses its relationship with the region from within a historical view. There are several factors and interests embedded in such relationships which have, at the end of the day, formed the EU and its stand towards the political changes which have been affecting some Arab countries for the last few months.

The paper concludes that the EU has been enjoying strong historical relations with the Arab World based on strategic interests due to geographical and economic considerations. However, various European states differ in the extent of their concern and interaction with the Arab region for a number of reasons, such as the colonial legacy, the degree of geographical neighborhood, and – most important – the absence of  an Arab unified vision for the changes around the globe, in general, and in the Arab World, in particular. Although the traditional European perspective of the region seems to continue but with a new means, finally wraps up the European approaches towards the Arab world.

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Abstract :Youth and Shift of Reference

Mohammad Al  Asbahi

Today’s younger generations, including children, represent a majority of the Arab societies and some as high as 75% of the population. This category of citizenry, therefore, needs utmost care and attention. They must be properly guided and empowered in order that they can encounter the challenges of today, creating a more secure environment, peaceful, and progressive for the welfare of tomorrow.

The first point of reference for this younger generation was – until recently – limited to the family, neighborhood and school. Since this has remained a shared and integrated responsibility without the clashing  of values, the Arab youth have been long known for their psychologically balanced and stable personalities. They have been less inclined to violence and vandalism than their Western counterparts.

However, the great changes taking place in the last few decades in the Arab societies and abroad have largely impacted and undermined such traditional points of reference. As transformations accelerate, an incident on one side of the globe may undoubtedly affect other areas in an indirect manner. Today’s telecommunications has founded an open, globalized and borderless virtual society. Unfortunately, these younger generations have not been as savvy nor challenged intellectually sufficiently enough to affect real change as of yet.

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Abstract :Seminar: Arab Uprising, Public Demands vs. Foreign Intervention

Bayan Al Omari