|
Editorial
Abstract :Trends
and Prospects of Political and Security Dynamics in the
Middle East
Political
and security activity accelerated during last year wile critical
dead-ends where reached in a number of hot issues, mainly the
Arab-Israeli conflict, the peace process, the Iranian nuclear
file, the Palestinian reconciliation and the Arab economic and
political development programmes.
A
systematic look refers to the increase in each of the resistance
ability in the region, the Arab governments' vulnerability and
the influence of the Israeli extreme right wing which threats
the regional security.
Furthermore, the Iranian military power as well as influence is
increasing in the region, especially in Iraq and Yemen. Turkey
also moves strongly in terms of politics and economy, playing a
major regional role.
The most
strategic indications of this political and security activity
could be as follows: the continuous political helplessness by
the Arab governments to set a joint vision to bring about any
genuine advancement or represent a good leadership; the blockade
in the peace process; the helplessness by the new US
administration to provide any intellectual, political or
security vision to observe the interests of the peoples of the
region; the weakness of the Palestinian Authority's leadership (Fateh
movement) in reading the regional and international variables
and thus leading the Palestinian national project; and the
public elite's respect for the resistance model in the region as
a realistic option that accomplishes the targets and protects
the interests.
The main
possible scenarios for this activity are the following:
-
The increase in the Iranian military power and its
international recognition, enabling it to become a partner in
setting the future of the region
-
The success of Dayton's project in the West Bank as well
as the new US project for peace, along with the continuity of
the Arab pressure to undermine the resistance, giving the chance
to the Israeli project to make a quantum leap at the expense of
the higher Arab interests and the Palestinian people's rights
-
The aggravation of the crisis between Iran, on one hand,
and the US and Israel, on the other, to the extent of armed
conflict and the use of the Western bases in the Arabian Gulf
states, which may push the region into internal disputes and
attrition of resources, increasing both the weakness of the Arab
nation and the opportunity for the domination of the Israeli
options in the region
-
If Israel takes a risk by re-occupying the Gaza Strip or
attacking Syria or the Lebanese resistance and then fail to
achieve its goals, the Arab-Islamic axis of resistance and
steadfastness in the region will be able to impose its viewpoint
and programme as a strategic option for the entire nation.
Home
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Research & Studies
Abstract :The New
American Strategy in Afghanistan
In his
speech on December 1, 2009 in WestPoint Base, the US president
Barrack Obama announced his new strategy in Afghanistan. Last
March, he had announced plans for a new strategy upon the
failure of the former president George Bush in Afghanistan after
7 years of the US military interference. This started when the
Bush's administration launched a strike against Taliban in
October 2001 in the aftermath of the 9 September attacks.
Taliban was accused of securing refuge for Osama bin Laden
considered by the Bush's administration responsible for the
attacks which destroyed the twin towers of New York as well as
the Pentagon headquarters, causing around 3,000 deaths among the
Americans.
In his
speech, Obama referred to the three headlines by saying: "There
are three major points for our strategy: a military effort to
prepare the situation for the provisional stage; a civil revival
to impose positive measures; and an efficient partnership with
Pakistan."
Home
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Abstract : Arab (Political
System) in Search for an International Role
For over a
couple of decades, the Arab World has been witnessing an
unprecedented state of split between its internal basic
components, as well as weakness and hesitation in its relations
with the external near and far environment. Such a situation has
significantly discerned since the 2nd Gulf War when
Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990.
It goes
without saying that the situation has also worsened since the US
occupation of Iraq in 2003, to the extent that some argue that
the Arab systems are facing a threat of proving formal regional
systems, resulting form the failures and inability to deal with
the major events and dilemmas taking place in several locations
in the region.
It is true
that a number of resolutions were agreed upon in the different
Arab summits –mainly in the last few years – recommending the
setting of a common vision and coordinated plans with regard to
the various issues. However, reality on the ground and
historical experience prove that none of these vision and plans
is found.
Home
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reports And Articles
Abstract :
The Foreign Projects of Change in the Arab region
The Arab
region is witnessing major strategic shifts on various
political, military, economic and social levels. It has been
subject to a state of instability for years, resulting in a
great chaos and negative consequences on the situation in
general and the state of security and stability in particular.
Thus, the region has become under a threat of different projects
with each aiming at consolidating its influence and achieving
its ambitions.
Therefore,
the Middle East Studies Centre, in cooperation with the Kuwaiti
Mujtama' magazine, organised a conference entitled by "The
Projects of Change in the Arab Region and Their Future" in Amman,
Jordan. The conference aimed at
the following: coming up with a unified strategic Arab vision
towards the shifts of the undergoing internal and external
projects of
change until 2015; building a joint plan for an Arab-Islamic
project of renaissance; and suggesting scholarly views of
possible scenarios of the nature of conflict or agreement
between such projects in the Arab region until 2015. During the
conference, 5 projects were considered major and of direct
influence, namely: the American, Israeli, Iranian, pan-Arab and
Islamic projects. Other projects were considered minor and of
little influence, namely: the European, Turkish, Indian and
Chinese projects.
Home
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Abstract : The Arabs and Turkey:
Vague Relations and Role in Regional and International Balances
In the last
few years, the Arab-Turkish relations have witnessed an
unprecedented quantum leap at all political, economic and
cultural levels. Moreover, there has been a shift in whatever
could be considered difficult, especially in military and
security cooperation between Turkey and countries with whom
relations had reached serious levels of disagreement and even
with whom had been on the verge of a war.
It is true
that Turkey's good relations with the countries of the atlantic,
desired relations with the European Union and allience with
Israel were also normal in a previous stage with the satellite
Arab "moderate" states. However, the greatest variable is that
such excellent relations have also extended to those states
which have always been opposing to the US policies, partly at
the expense of Turkey's relations with the moderate Arab states.
Home
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Abstract :
The Palestinian
Options between
National Interests and Foreign Pressures
As a result
of the sharp divisions witnessed by the Palestinian scene not
only affecting variables but also strategies and constants,
there is hardly any mention of any agreed-upon Palestinian
options in this critical stage. These divisions have occupied
the minds of the political elites, who moved them to ordinary
people who largely suffer from the elite's disunity. Some even
believe that the depth of the division have reached a level that
is hard to stop unless a great effort is exerted by the
political elite. Unfortunately, this does not seem to be the
case since they do not pay attention to the matter in this stage
as if political polarisation by each party has been an objective
per se.
As a
consequence, it has become very difficult – in this state of
division in the Palestinian scene – to talk about a unified
Palestinian goal, especially when discussing political options.
Nevertheless, the political reading of the reality in the
Palestinian scene, statements by politicians and experts as well
as writings by journalists can determine the options to be
agreed upon.
Home
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Abstract :
The indications of
the relationship between investment and living level in
Jordan
Investment
expenditures considered as one of main macroeconomic indicators
because its a main component of National Income, and despite of
that the investment expenditure changes leads to direct change
in per-capita income, taken into consideration the investment
multiplier, the investment influence on consumer's life level
considered as indirect influence because of some meditarian
economic variables that mediate this relationship to weaken it
and may inverse its direction. In Jordan, statistics indicates
that new investments have a strong correlation with consumer
price index which means that new investments may be reflected in
higher price levels in stead of higher living levels.
Home
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Abstract :
Horn and East of Africa:
Present and Future
The Horn
and East of Africa is witnessing significant political,
strategic, security and economic activities, due to its vital
location from the point of view of all the disputing and
efficient parties. It also represents a strategic depth for the
Arab region, mainly Egypt and the Sudan in Africa on one hand
and Saudi Arabia and Yemen in the Arabian Gulf on the other.
Furthermore, it suffers from various foreign Eastern, Western
and Israeli interventions and designs aiming at controlling the
region in all the aforementioned fields. The status quo directly
and deeply affects the Arab World, which may only arise later
for political, geographic and internal considerations.
In order to
accurately and objectively describe the current situation in the
Horn and East of Africa, as well as its future and the role of
the Arab systems in dealing with it, a seminar was held by the
Middle East Studies Centre to discuss 3 topics: "The Security,
Political and Economic Challenges Facing the Horn and East of
Africa", "The Arab Political Systems in the Horn and East of
Africa", and "The Horizons of Stability and the Required Arab
Role in the Horn and East of Africa.
Home
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Abstract :
Somali Internal Conflict
and Foreign Interventions
this study
concluded that contemporary somalian sitution refers to painful
scene, that the struggle amohg the groups leded to continudnce
the anarchy and subversion. In the last the leaders of civil war
divided in two branhes. First, under previous exclusive leader
of islamic courts sharif sheik Ahmed «now he is the president of
Somalia since january 2009» supported by u.s.a. and ethiobia,
kenya. While second which under the chief of Islamic union and
his allies «the fighters youngs regulation – Shabab Elmujahdin-»
this group according to consideration of U.S.A. is terrorist
organization, because it is indictment (accusation) to make
relations with qaada regulation. And because its restricted
ancestral ideology and its believing that all Somalian people
must fight U.S.A and its allies for liberation somalia land and
build Islamic rejime in Somalia state. Whail the first group
believes that the future and interst of somalian people needs
moderate and medium system and good relasions with neighbors of
Somalia. Then the two groups involved in bloody civil war will
not end unless that the leaders of the two groups percept that
this war is futility and fruitlessness. Then these leaders must
go to discuss there problems upon circularity table, and go to
appeal to comromise and moderate, and medium solutions, and find
exit or loophole from their troubles to save their people from
the extinction and duing out.
Home
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Abstract :
The State of the
Palestinian Authority without the January 2010 Elections
This brief
study addresses a number of topics. The first is the current
political and legal status of the Palestinian National
Authority. The second is the disagreement among the Palestinian
factions as well as the legal and institutional vacuum along
with the legal and political consequences of both. The third
discusses the legal scenarios of the status quo in Palestine,
mainly the presidential and legislative elections. Finally, a
number of possible positive political and statutory options are
put forward to solve the crisis which threatens the entire
Palestinian cause.
Home
|
