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Editorial
Abstract : Jordan and Weathers the Storm
During the last sixty years Jordan has experienced many crises and sometimes lost and sometimes triumphed: but overall it has progressed. Most of the problems were due to its role in the Palestinian cause. Today Jordan finds itself in need of a strong and faithful Palestinian ally. Today, Jordan faces three main problems. They are the Arab peace initiative; the publicized return of the "Homeland Replacement" theory to the Israeli political arena; and the change of American priorities and visions for the region.
The Arab peace initiative presented a huge gift to Israel in exchange for withdrawal from territories occupied in 1967 according to the UN 242 Act. This gift includes the full Arab normalization with Israel along with peace treaties with Israel. This initiative was adopted by Jordan but as seen today could cause the Palestinian cause to be abandoned by naturalizing Palestinians in Jordan. For this, Jordan must not allow tools it has to be used against it from the inside and hence must strengthen itself starting from the inside.
The "Homeland Replacement" theory became a traditional solution for Israelis to solve their "problem" by giving all of Palestine to Jews after 1967. Of course, this is a direct threat on Jordan as a whole for it is the obvious country to solve the "problem". In this case, Jordan needs strong and loyal Palestinian support to aid it in this challenge. That is why Jordan must heed the message from Hamas and utilise Hamas to their side.
Jordan's regional role is becoming weaker as time passes. There were three main requests from the USA which needed to be met for US economic assistance to continue. Firstly, aiding the Palestinian-Israeli peace process, secondly, aiding American policies against Saddam Hussein's system and thirdly, participating in the "War on Terrorism". But now these requests have become of little importance to the US and hence Jordan is losing political importance. This has caused Jordan to be in danger and need new strong political cards to protect itself. Jordan must find strong Iraqi, Palestinian and Arab powers to ally to form a strong front against any foreign aggression.
The strategic vision to face the challenges includes:
1 Starting national negotiations between the political powers and the ruling party to strengthen Jordan.
2 Revising Jordan's current alliances and replacing them if stronger, more affective alliances are found.
3 Attacking the current Israeli government in all possible ways.
4 Revising the Jordanian stance on the Arab peace initiative.
5 Forming a strong foreign political stance based on the requests of the people and not on the requests of the US government.
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Research & Studies
Abstract : Global Dimensions of Piracy and its Impact on Red Sea Security
The incidence of sea piracy off the Somali coast has been raising and becoming more complicated since the beginning of 2008, threatening one of the most vital maritime routes in the world. The gulf of Eden controls the southern gateway to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, with an estimated 16,000 to 20,000 crossing ships and 30% of the global oil shipping. It is a major route for trade between Europe and Asia, and almost the only passage from Russia and the Black Sea countries to East Africa and East and South-east Asia. In addition, it could be the only outlet for the trade of the Red Sea countries which have no other coasts.
It is noteworthy that the Somali waters are very close to the crowded maritime passage connecting the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean. Somalia has been without an effective government since 1991. It does not have a navy to patrol the 1,800-mile coast. Consequently, piracy has increased.
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Abstract : The Iranian Reformist Phenomenon
The two-part study investigates a stage in the development of the Iranian system: the term of the former president Sayyed Muhammed Khatemi. The study explores the reasons behind the shift of attitude of several hardliners of the Iranian Revolution's first decade towards moderate, reformist thought. Some had participated in previous cabinets, had been representatives or delegates for Khomeini to more than one institution. The study examines the emergence of the reformist movement in Iran and how president Khatemi managed to lead it by raising slogans tackling aspirations of some groups of the Iranian people. The result was the appeal to the young and women, in particular, leading to a landslide vote in the seventh presidential elections of 1997. Later came the achievements of his government at home and abroad. The conclusion attempts to explain why development occurred in that stage of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and whether the reformist movement managed to realise its slogans and goals easily or whether they were hindered by barriers from within the system's institutions.
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Abstract : Israeli Policies towards the Arabs in Netanyahu's Era
The study investigates the basic orientations and specific attitudes of Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu's to the Arab World, the Palestinian Arabs, and the Palestinian Arabs who are Israeli citizens. It is found that there is no significant difference in his view of the three groups when thinking of his aspirations, even if he has different tactics from those of the other Israeli leaders. His goal is complete Israeli sovereignty over all Palestinian soil and the removal of all Palestinians with the least damage. Nevertheless, Netanyahu realises that to introduce changes on local, regional and international levels makes a success of his policies a hard task. Therefore, he is seen to be the most equivocal Israeli politician, whose strategy is to run forward to avoid facing responsibilities. Another factor leading to his failure is, according to President Clinton, he overestimates his importance by acting like the president of a super state. He follows an eccentric rule in reading reality: 'imagine that your situation is so and so, even if it is just fantasy. Work on this basis, making use of the means of contact and the system of the state. This will come true in reality'. Such a rule may achieve some gains in the short run, but they will soon turn out to be illusory.
In the aftermath of February 2009 elections Netanyahu forged a coalition government of extreme religious and right-wing parties on one hand, and the Labour Party on the other. He believed the coalition would allow him to evade political responsibilities, and grant him the role of mediator between the extreme right (Liberman) and the left (Barak). He does not demonstrate power or wisdom, but merely weakness. The irony is that he criticised his opponents in the election campaign for having left Israel in a position of weakness and humiliation. Finally, however, his most obvious weakness is the adoption of the rule: 'What counts is what the Jews do'.
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Reports And Articles
Abstract : Two States for Two Peoples…A Waning Proposition
This study makes clear Israel’s contradictory attitude to the peace perspective based on a two-state solution. It is doomed to failure, even for those who believe in its efficiency and promote it in the international meetings. The study refers to a number of facts in connection with settlement activity which took place in the West Bank during the years (2001-2005), in which the annual average growth of the population of Israel came to 1.8%. The political and strategic repercussions of settlement activity are discussed, by exploring the stance of the government in justifying the settlement policy in what it calls 'objective' reasons, such as meeting the needs of the natural population growth. The Israeli government concedes that there are other reasons, such as satisfying the demands of the right-wing parties in the cabinet in order to maintain the coalition government. Another is the reservations of some with regard to the Israeli army's role in the evacuation of settlements.
The army is the only Israeli authority capable of performing such a task. According to the study – it is beyond the official political framework, as it acts effectively in the settlements. In its turn, the US administration does not pay due attention to ending Israeli settlement activity, seeing no reason to disturb relations with its ally. Furthermore, the US administration lacks flexibility and does not possess the tools to force Israel to stop the settlement activity. Finally, the Palestinian Authority has no significant influence on settlement, according to the study. It concludes that the issue has long-term repercussions that will affect the peace process and, more importantly, the implementation of the two-states-for-two-peoples proposition. This confirms the falsity of the Israeli peace claims.
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Abstract : After the Gaza War The Turkish Role: from the Bridge to Deep Inside
The Justice and Development Party (the AKP or White Party) which rules today in Turkey, is the first to achieve two consecutive victories in general elections in more than 50 years. Firstly, it won the November 2002 elections, two years after the formation of the party. Secondly, in the latest July 2007 elections, it won 47% of the vote to form a government without a coalition. These results have not been witnessed in Turkish political history since the Democratic Party, started by Adnan Mandaris, which led political life in the 1950s.
The AKP party brought back to politics the meaning lost with the advent of the secularist parties, which ruled after Najmuddin Erbakan was forced to leave the post of Prime Minister in 1997, less than a year of taking over. In fact, it is not only a party like the other secularist or traditional Islamic parties, but also wisely combines political values derived from Islamic standards – which may be considered conservative – with real politics by means of programmes and political tools.
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Abstract : The Arabs and the Vatican: Challenges and Prospects
A seminar was held at the Middle East Studies Centre in Amman, Jordan, entitled "The Arabs and the Vatican: Challenges and Horizons for the Pope's Visit to the Region". It was attended by a number of prominent political, intellectual and expert figures and chaired by Mr Jawad Al-Hamad, the MESC director.
At the opening of the seminar, it was stressed that relations between the Vatican and the Arabs have been controlled by political and diplomatic, but not religious, factors, bearing in mind the focus of the historical relation on the stance against the Arab-Israeli conflict. The only areas of interaction were the statements supporting or not supporting Israel.
Four topics were discussed in the seminar. The first was "The History, Challenges and Levels of the Relationship: A Critical Reading". The second was "The Dimensions of the Pope's Visit to the Region: Political, Local and Regional Complexities". The third investigated "How the Visit Was Utilised by the Arabs and the Israelis: Gains and Losses". The fourth was "How Jordan Can Map out the Future Relationship between Arabs and the Vatican in Order to Change Its Attitude towards Their Causes".
The seminar was concluded by iterating the significance of Muslim-Christian relations in Jordan and the entire Middle East region. Such a relation has been distinguished for centuries, but without the Vatican having a positive role in enhancing it. Therefore, it is our duty as Arabs to maintain this relationship, since we are responsible for standing up for our causes as well as persuading others to support them
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Abstract : Palestinian Interior Dialogue after the War on Gaza
The Israeli war on Gaza (27 December 2008 – 18 January 2009) represents a turning point for the Palestinian political map and the pan-Arab and international perspectives. Therefore, this war – with its consequences for the Palestinian politicians and their local, pan-Arab and regional relations – has had an influence on the Palestinian split. The war and its results are directly or indirectly present in the Palestinian local dialogue, which has witnessed various stages and diverse sessions since the political split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
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Abstract : Eighteenth Anniversary of the Establishment of the Middle East Studies Centre
On Wednesday 8 April 2009, the Middle East Studies Centre celebrated its eighteenth anniversary. The ceremony was attended by prominent Jordanian political and academic figures. A number of friends of the MESC, the Jordanian Engineers' Association and the Al-Jazeera Bureau in Amman were honored for their efforts in supporting intellectual and academic research in the country. The ceremony was concluded by a dinner in the honor of the guests.
Othman Budeir, the chairman of the board of the Electricity Company, accompanied by a number of prominent national figures, inaugurated the centre's exhibition about the eighteen years of activities and publications. After that, Jawad Al-Hamad, the centre director, welcomed the guests and referred to major changes in the Arab world and the surrounding areas such as Iran and Turkey. He announced the ceremony to be a starting point for mapping out future landmarks in the progress of our nation. He expressed his aspiration for a colorful vision of a glorious, powerful nation for generations to come.
Then several intellectuals, researchers and politicians made contributions. Professor Ahmed Said Nofel, a political sciences pscholar at Al Al-Bayt University, praised the centre's integrity and objectivity over the last eighteen years.
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