Editorial
The Main Strategic Change in Palestine Through 2007

Through out 2007 Palestine will be under the effect of two main strategic scenes and factors: First an increase in the distinctive and surprising ability and steadfastness of the Hamas leadership to break the sanctions on the Palestinian people. Hamas will also play the political game regionally and internationally as the main key Palestinian party. The second factor is the increase of the pragmatic behavior of Fatah to recognize the new strategic facts including the acceptance of sharing in partnership in the political life with Hamas.

These two strategic factors will confirm a national dynamic to change the rules of the political and confrontation game with the Israeli occupation. If Israel refuses to recognize the new Palestinian facts, the above two factors will enhance a third Palestinian uprising against the occupation on both the civil and military tracks. Such an Intifada will push Israeli options in a corner: The best would be for Israel to end fully its occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip to the 4th June 1967 line.

Research & Studies

War on Lebanon & The US Middle East:
Background and Repercussion

     The author believes that the two operations, "scattered illusion" in Palestine and "True Promise" in Lebanon, resulted in Israeli revising its views on many issues, and lead to the downfall of its security war illusion. This is while it had been prompted to consider waging a full-scale war on both Lebanon and Palestine to end the resistance, as a prelude for the reconstruction of a new Middle East.
     At the Palestinian level, the Israeli destructive war aimed to paralyze the Hamas government, demolish the infrastructure of the resistance and break down Palestinian will. At the Lebanese level, it aimed at pushing the Lebanese government to execute UN resolution 1009 for disarming the resistance movement and weaken Hizbullah.
     The war aimed, in addition, to covering the military and security failure of the Israeli army; weaken Syria and Iran, impose political, military and security projects to redraw the political map of the Middle East and lead to its new birth.

US new Project in the ME
     The wars were part of American designs on the region and divide the bigger states into sectarian ones based on racial divides while staying small and weak at the same time. It also appears that Washington has abandoned the idea of spreading democracy in the region after the Hamas success in the legislative elections of 2006.
      The author believes that the New Middle East would weaken Hizbullah, consequently weaken Syria and Iran and undermine the Palestinian resistance. The US approach follows two courses: Using military might to eliminate the resistance; and the use of soft power in coalition with the Arab pro-peace regimes, and the containing of the Iraqi crisis.

Lebanon War Repercussions
      The Lebanese resistance showed high combative, technical and morale levels. The credibility of its leadership was boosted during the war. The Israeli military failure on the other hand, created a series of crisis in Israeli and American perceptions and the war broke down a number of Israeli army theories and concepts.

UN Resolution 1701
     This resolution was designed to disarm Hizbullah, remove its fighters from south Lebanon, and replace them with the Lebanese army. If it had been achieved this move would have been a qualitative stage in US plans to contain Hizbullah fighters and eliminate them at a latter stage.

Israeli Strategy after Lebanese War
      In the light of Israel's failure, it now has two choices:
Move to negotiate with Syria and give up the Golan Heights to neutralize Damascus and weaken Arab resistance;
Or prepare for a wider regional war to try and reinforce the deterrence aspect of its military capability and impose solution by force. The new strategy is likely to develop in the following months, depending on Israeli public opinion trends, the ruling party, US policy on Syria, Iran and Iraq, and on the power of the resistance movements.

Research & Studies
Consequences of Saudi WTO Accession - Continuity and Change -

After the events of 9/11 and its regional and international implications, Saudi Arabia found itself faced with external pressures pushing for internal reform.

The study attempts to observe and analyze the limits and prospects of change and the opening up of Saudi Arabia one year after its accession to the World Trade Organization in November 2005 by shedding light on different political-cultural issues that have arisen during domestic debates in the Kingdom.

However the study concludes that openness remains limited especially after 9/11, reflecting the desire of the ruling elite only to improve the status quo and not to change it, thus continuing a pattern in Saudi politics that balances between the response to inevitable development and the need for internal stability.

The study highlights the weakness of the Saudi movement for reform, both its Islamic and liberal streams, and the hegemony of the formal attitudes represented by the Ruling Family, consultative elites, as well as the bureaucratic and religious figures who are close to the ruling elite.

Research & Studies
HAMAS Government: Challenges and Prospects

The author believes that the Hamas success in the 2006 legislative elections and their control of the Palestinian government represents a new era in Palestinian politics. However, its success was marred by the negative effects of the present political environment in Palestine; the continuation of Fateh and their grip on the Palestinian presidency and the Palestine Liberation Organization, their control of public sector and security forces, the blocking of aid into the Palestinian territories and the confrontation between both movements.

Achievements

- The Hamas efforts in maintaining a harmonious situation with the laws, traditions and commitments made by the previous Palestinian Authority;

- Keeping Palestinian rights and observing national unity;

- Starting reform programs, notably regarding financial and administrative corruption;

- Keeping the arm of resistance, prohibiting political arrest, and the development of the military capabilities of Hamas;

- Separation between military and political issues while at the same time maintaining a harmonious situation between politics and resistance;

- Consolidation of the Palestinian dimension into the Islamic and Arab fold;

- Initiating democratic rule;

- Flexible and pragmatic approach on political issues.

Local and Foreign Challenges

The author thinks that Hamas have faced a number of local and foreign challenges which have limited the movement power in performing government functions and projects, notably:

- International isolation of Hamas for their uncommitment to the international quartered demands, especially recognition of Israel. In addition, Arab states have not offered remarkable helop to Hamas government.

- Local crisis and security chaos. This state arises from absence fo sole secutiy authority. The chaos has been used against Hamas by Fateh leadership for political ends.

- Political challenges represented by local, Israeli, regional and international pressure to contain Hames, stop resistance and impose recognition of Israel.

- Local frictions between Fateh and Hamas in the street, security forces, presidency and government.

- National Unity Government (NUG): To stop deterioration, both Hameas and Fateh have decided formation of a NUG based on the prisoners document. Hamas showed great flexibility in giving up a number of ministry posts. But Abbas repeatedly retracted away from previous commitments.

The Hebrew state: Israeli government and opposition call for destruction of Hamas government and infrastructure, and for support of Abbas.

In conclusion, the authority in view of great challenges to Hamas, argues that it is difficult to forecast future developments she sees that Hamas have to view local, Arab and international political realities, and NUG is the way out of the crisis.

Seminar
The End of American Influence in the Middle East

Interview

Strategic Dimensions of Resistance Programs in Palestine and Lebanon on Israeli Military Security Strategy

       Director of the Middle East Studies Center, Mr. Jawad Al – Hamad, on 17-7-2006, conducted a telephoned dialogue with the Egyptian strategic military expert, general tal'at Musalam.

The dialogue dealt with nature of the confrontation between Israel and Hizb-Ullah in the north, and between Israel and Hamas and other Palestinian resistance factions, in the South; and whether such confrontation was tactical or of strategic dimension. The dialogue investigated reasons of escalation by Israel and its impacts, and whether Israel and its new government have been entangled in this battle.

Other questions were raised about both Parties potentials in the war and high tenacity use of Israeli air force, in the light of international and regional dimensions and of land and arm considerations. Some questions dealt with importance of people's endurance in the confrontation nature, in addition to the resistance role and performance in the battle.

The dialogue, also a discussed possible extension of the confrontation, regional extent of a potential wider confrontation, and impact of surprises Israel met in Gaza and south Lebanon, this situation would make Israel reconsider its strategies and its ability to open a wider regional front.

The discussion, in addition, focused on the nature of the present encounter. With Israel in the context of Arab – Israeli conflict, its future prospects, the role it will belay, and present hostilities' impacts on Israeli strategies and on such conflict.

The dialogue, lastly, dealt with the international side and confrontation effect on its position, international Policies and Israeli aggression, and possible American retreat in the face of strategic change in the Arab – Israeli balance through both Palestinian resistance and Lebanese resistance.

Reports and Articles

The External Challenges Facing Jordan

he external environment affects the internal policy of any state. Because of her location, Jordan is greatly affected by the surrounding political events which has a great impact on its internal decision-making process. The Kingdom serves as a role model for the small state surrounded by an environment of regional instability.

During the course of debate on the dangers facing Jordan and Egypt it can be discerned that Israel poses the greatest dangers on these states because of her ambitions and expansionist plans in the region despite the many agreements and conventions signed between it and a number of Arab states but which it has failed to commit to.

On the Palestinian issue, Israel tries to exploit the existing distinctive relationship between Jordan and Palestine to execute its expansionist plans for it wants to take the land and establish a state on all of the territory of Palestine.

As to the American occupation of Iraq, the embargo on that country which lasted for 10 years turned it from a politically, economically and militarily strong state into a weak one. The last American occupation that started in 2003 lead to the pilfering of Iraq's resources, the weakening of its people and the dissipation of their national resolve. Israel is taking advantage of this to create greater sectarian strife especially regarding the Kurdish issue.

The report addresses the American intervention in Arab countries, the opening of different files and projects such as the "The Greater Middle East Project", political and economic reform, and the fighting of what it calls terrorism to try to redraw the region's map in favor of American and Israel's interests something which will have tremendous political and economic impact on Jordan.

     The report showed Jordan faces different external challenges; it is the most affected country by the surrounding threats which needs the activation of joint Arab action and the creation of a new framework for greater Arab cooperation. In the last decades Jordan has always believed in strengthening Arab relations as elements of its own strength for an integrated society that has the ability to faces external challenges and stand steadfast against them.

Reports and Articles

Israel, the Police Keeping US interests in the Arab Region

     The report discusses the strong relationship between the United States and Israel, based on US interests in the Arab region, especially those related to oil issues. The report clarifies this relationship since establishment of the Zionist entity, development of oil prices, and the region's wars which exhausted oil revenue surplus invested in the West's banks.

The report reviews history of this issue after the World War II, changes in oil prices, in a game between Western States and oil companies operating in the Arab World. Where the later used to reduce prices for the benefit of industrial firms. The game reached a stage where US would threaten Arab countries and leaders in case they insisted on raising oil prices.

Israeli existence in the region and the role it plays represents both US and Israel's reciprocal interests: Israel strives to foster a strong and extending entity, while weakening other countries in the region; US, at the same time, would utilize the area's huge wealth and keep its states weak and unable to protest against low oil prices.

     The report cites important steps taken by West's industrialized countries, notably the US, to siege the region, and recontrol oil prices, amounts of production and revenues there of.

Reports and Articles

 The Iraqi Quagmire The American confusion and the scenarios of withdrawal from Iraq

     There is no doubt that the American administration suffers a serious dilemma in Iraq now. The American human and economic losses will not come to an end. Every day, American soldiers are killed, many tanks and military vehicles are subject to explosion. It seems that the hand of the Iraqi resistance is taller than what the American administration had expected.

Paul l.Bremer in his book "My year in Iraq" said: "It seems that the Iraqi insurgency movement is harder than what we thought."

Now there are many Americans people asking their administration to withdraw the American soldiers from Iraq. The democrats in the Congress press heavily to legislate a resolution to withdraw from Iraq.

Now, after more than 3 years of the invasion, more than 2500 Americans soldiers have lost their lives in Iraq and more than 200 billion dollars were have been spent After all that, what are the scenarios of withdrawal?

A. The 1st Scenario: The prompt withdrawal:

This scenario faces many objections:

1. The prompt withdrawal means that the American administration loses its war against terrorism since it considered Iraq as the main front of this war.

2. How can the American administration explain the invasion and its losses?

3. USA will lose its position as the unique pole in the world.

4. USA will not be able to interfere with the affairs of any other country in the world.

B. 2nd Scenario: withdrawal outside Iraqi cities:

This is an old scenario. It may reduce American losses, but it will clear the way for the sectarian militias to fill up the field which may lead to a horrible civil war.

C. 3rd scenario: Gradual withdrawal (Scheduled Withdrawal)

This scenario is adopted by several sides including Iraqi tawafuq front, Board of Muslims Scholars, National Dialogue Front, and others.

The Americans refuse this scenario for the following reasons:

1. This scheduling may encourage the Iraqi resistance to intensify their attacks against American troops.

2. This scheduling can not be announced unless Iraqi armed forces are ready to take over the security task.

D. 4th scenario: (achieving task)

This is the scenario that the American administration has adopted. American officials always emphasize that they will not leave Iraq until achieving their task in establishing a democratic, secure and stable country.

Reports and Articles

Will shar'eya Courts Control all Somalia?

Reports and Articles

Israel's Crimes Hides its Military and Security Failure

    This report discusses "Operation Scattering Illusion" that was orchestrated near the Abu Salem Vine Crossing, while analyzing its results, consequences and motives. It further highlights the Israeli aggression in the West Bank and Gaza before the operation that included assassinating resistance leaders, and the different massacres carried out against the Palestinian people with the one on the Gaza beach getting prominence. The resistance faced the aggression by carrying out a new operation on 25 June 2006.

It was carried out by three Palestinian factions and lead to the killing of two Israeli soldiers, wounding seven others and destroying an Israeli tank. In turn, two resistance leaders were killed while six others returned to Gaza with an Israeli prisoner, Jlaad Shaleet. The report points out the factions were willing to exchange the Israeli soldiers in turn for 1000 Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.

The report also outlined the consequences of the Israeli invasion of Gaza called Operation Summer Rains in which Israel kidnapped more than 60 Palestinian government officials and cut off electricity and water of the people living in the Strip.

     The report highlighted the fact that many in Gaza strip are suffering because of such Israeli action, discussing the Arab and international reactions on the formal and popular levels. There report has an appendix of the number of Palestinian prisoners held in the Israeli jails.

Reports and Articles

Fatah Needs a New Compass

fter the big win of Hamas in the last Palestinian Legislative Election in January, 2006, all political parties and factions, especially in Palestine, have been surprised at the Fatah position in seeking to frustrate all of Hamas's programs as an elected government. Observers are now saying Fatah has lost its political direction and compass as a result.

In a review of its perspectives since dominating the Palestinian political scene since the 1960s, we find that Fatah positions and policies have been retreating and changing especially in regard to the justness of the Palestinian rights and negotiations with Israel, the occupier.

     The development of the Palestinian cause and the increase of international and regional pressure on the Palestinian people and its national leaders require all factions and movements, especially Fatah, to leave its own personal interests aside and stress on the democratic approach rather than adopt conflict-ridden means as a way of applying pressure on Hamas. Such is not in the higher interests of the Palestinian people.

Reports and Articles

IRAN: CONSEQUENCES OF A WAR

    An air attack on Iran by Israeli or US forces would be aimed at setting back Iran’s nuclear program by at least five years. A ground offensive by the United States to terminate the regime is not feasible given other commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan, and would not be attempted.

An air attack would involve the systematic destruction of research, development, support and training centres for nuclear and missile programs and the killing of as many technically competent people as possible.

 A US attack, which would be larger than anything Israel could mount, would also involve comprehensive destruction of Iranian air defence capabilities and attacks designed to pre-empt Iranian retaliation. This would require destruction of Iranian Revolutionary Guard facilities close to Iraq and of regular or irregular naval forces that could disrupt Gulf oil transit routes.

Although US or Israeli attacks would severely damage Iranian nuclear and missile programmes, Iran would have many methods of responding in the months and years that followed.

These would include disruption of Gulf oil production and exports, in spite of US attempts at pre-emption, systematic support for insurgents in Iraq, and encouragement to associates in Southern Lebanon to stage attacks on Israel. There would be considerable national unity in Iran in the face of military action by the United States or Israel, including a revitalised Revolutionary Guard.

     One key response from Iran would be a determination to reconstruct a nuclear programme and develop it rapidly into a nuclear weapons capability, with this accompanied by withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty. This would require further attacks. A military operation against Iran would not, therefore, be a short-term matter but would set in motion a complex and long-lasting confrontation. It follows that military action should be firmly ruled out and alternative strategies developed.

Reports and Articles

"Beyond Haifa", Hizbollah's war with Israel

his paper provides a factual background of the war on Lebanon and Hizbollah in its early days. Through concrete developments and happenings on the ground demonstrated by different aspects of the war, the paper argues that new strategic realities and equations are being built that daily show Israel is no longer the awesome military power that once was in the Middle East. The paper shows Israel's destructive capabilities on a defenseless country like Lebanon but also examines the ability of a non-state actor like Hizbollah to put up stiff resistance, hold the Israeli army at bay, and hit Israel in its strategic depth. In a curious way the conflict should be called the war on Israel.

Reports and Articles

The National Accord Document: Winners and Losers

fter the Palestinian legislative election in January 25th 2006, in which Hamas won a great victory, there have been dramatic developments in the internal Palestinian arena. One of the challenges was the international and financial siege, which posed a huge pressure on the new Hamas-led government. Another problem was the anarchy that prevailed in Gaza, and to some extent in the West bank, as a result of ousting Fateh from government after becoming a minority in the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC).

The Palestinians felt that there must be a way out of this crisis. The PLC and president Abbas called for a national dialogue to establish a common ground for the factions, especially Fateh and Hamas. The dialogue was inaugurated on May 25th, and a number of initiatives were presented. Among those initiatives was what is known as "prisoners' document".

Prisoners' document is one of the most important initiatives that aim at achieving a Palestinian unity for the purpose of facing the Israeli convergence plan, and to seek an end to the international siege.

The document was considered important because it was drafted by the prisoners who were active leaders of the Palestinian national movement, and who have a good reputation and experience as political leaders. Moreover, the document came to redraw the Palestinian political map after the dramatic winning of the elections by Hamas, which is expected to become a major player in the political life in the future.

The document could be regarded as a way out of the crisis, marked by confrontations between Hamas and Fateh in Gaza, and the rise of protests calling for salaries, in addition to the stalemate in the political horizon. This document offers Hamas a national programme with which it can make a breakthrough in the international position which imposed a fierce siege on the Palestinians.

The document was also regarded as a way out for Fateh, which found itself out of cabinet after 40 years of monopolizing the policy-making. It opened the door for Fateh to return to "Authority" through a "national government". However, Hamas will stay as the largest bloc in the PLC, and will reserve the right to form such a government.

The document came after a strong struggle by Hamas to make reforms in the PLO, and to enable factions such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad to enter the Organization. Moreover, the document sets a general framework for future political and resistance movements. On the one hand, it attempted to make a balance between the resistance and the political compromise by stressing on the right of the Palestinians in resisting the occupation, and on the other hand, leaving the door open for future negotiations and diplomatic tracks to solve the conflict. It asserts that any political move should not relinquish any of the basic rights of the Palestinians.

One could argue that this document has undermined Hamas’ victory in the legislative elections. At the same time, the document subordinated Fateh’s defeat in the elections, given the fact that this defeat was difficult to accept neither by Fateh, nor by the USA, Europe, Israel, and even the Arab governments.

The document was regarded by some people as a tool to kick Hamas out of power through the referendum, which was suggested, and then decided, by president Abbas. The alternative, however, was to push Hamas to, implicitly, recognize Israel. Hamas was aware of these objectives, and thus dealt responsibly with the document. It was so difficult for Fateh to return to the Authority through the document, or through the referendum which would never form an alternative to the democratic and impartial elections.

      The document could be regarded as an achievement by all parties, especially Hamas which began to form a base for its new role as a major player in the Palestinian policy-making. Moreover, we may argue that the document is a good achievement for the Palestinian cause, given it will form a political reference for any future move, a reference that is composed by all Palestinian factions, and that would reserve the Palestinian national rights.