Editorial
Confrontations with Israel and the Resistance Victory

   On both Israel's southern and northern fronts, recent confrontations between its armed forces and Lebanese and Palestinian resistance fighters, has formed a qualitative jump in dynamics of balance and deterrence in the Arab – Israeli conflict.

The resistance vigor surprised the occupational forces which had the reputation of high morals, great field combat capacities, diverse tactical methods, maneuver skills and competency in using available weapons. The field war operations have called both sides for revision of previous equations, enabling the Lebanese resistance movement to win an exciting provisional victory, and the Palestinians to confuse Israeli plans for continuous aggression.

The above resistance victory does not necessarily mean gaining an overwhelming triumph and inflecting a direct Israeli field military defeat. Lebanese resistance victory, however, means two things.

- the resistance success in steadfastness and confrontation, and in conducting various tactical mobile combat operations against the huge enemy forces, armed with most modern technologies. The resistance fighters were able to apply guerilla warfare to continue the battle and thwart enemy. Plans by destroying their force capacities, making them surrender or flee away from the battle field.

- Development of fighters ability to inflict great losses among Israeli forces. Penetrate their strong defenses, and hit Israel's vital civil, military and industrial sites.

How the Resistance Won

In both Lebanon and Palestine, the resistance won victory on Israel on many levels. It was able to execute qualitative military operations on the enemy's land and against its forces defending frontiers and civilian areas. The triumph was realized through the Palestinian "scattered Illusion" operation on June 25 , 2006 , east of Gaza, and the Lebanese "True Promise" operation, on July 12 , 2006 , in north Palestine Where Israelis suffered many causalities and two soldiers captured by the Lebanese resistance fighters. In addition, the two movements in Palestine and Lebanon were able to absorb the enemy's land and air bombing, and they succeeded in mobilizing popular support in spite of war crimes committed by the enemy following to both operations.

The resistance fighters, too, showed their potentials in using all their available weapons during the battles, and were capable of thwarting enemy's  plans and military operations. Of special importance was the fighters success in persistent launching of missiles and rocket. In spite of enemy's continuous air raids and artillery shelling, guided by satellites and other advanced technologies.

By their rockets and missiles, the fighters accomplished a great victory on Israeli security measures, through the relative balance with the enemy air force, as it failed to control such rackets and missiles during the confrontation period. Such weapons, there for, succeeded on both fronts in breaking through the enemy: front, targeting its land, installations and towns.

The resistance , also, relatively succeeded in neutralizing helicopters by wing developed missiles again them. Six Israeli helicopters were downed, and, as a result, such planes were lightly used on the Lebanese front.

It worth's mentioning the resistance success in deterring the Israelis from accomplishing military endurance during their limited invasion of Lebanese and Palestinian territories, and in foiling their attempted deployments back to resistance lines, in Lebanon and Gaza.

The resistance problem on both fronts is the political processes unbalances with military confrontation on land. This has come as a result of UN resolutions imposes by US; pressures by Arab officials who fear confrontation with Israel; or through some local powers which, for political, economic or intellectual considerations, do not support the resistance programs, or who even, sometimes, offer the enemy life buoy from land military defeat such powers use the pretext of damage and human losses as a result of war to justify their position.

Some people reduce and minimize the victory and its results of enemy's material and human losses which, at the same time, are mostly kept unreported by Israeli consulship. Such people give no significance for the resistance movement main role in gaining freedom, dignity and independence, and for forcing enemy's withdrawal as a result of accumulates losses, as it happened in south Lebanon in 2000, and in Gaza, in 2005 .

In conclusion, on both Lebanese and Palestinian fronts, the resistance accomplished military victory on the Israeli enemy. Its gains were so accumulated that they obliged them to withdraw and review their occupational policies. The resistance movements, thus, have made it inevitable for Arab politicians to gain political victory on the Israeli enemy. In addition, such accomplishments have created new deterrence and balance equations and have forced the Israelis to review their strategies.

Resistance and political leaders in both Palestine and Lebanon, therefore, have to perceive these facts and act accordingly when dealing with their countries issues. They should ignore agitations and false reamers spread by ignorant or people who have different orientations or goals incompatible with the resistance objective. Future will reinforce the outcome of the resistance victory and its accumulated struggle, on matter what hostile or defeated media try to obscure realities.

Research & Studies
New challenges Facing the Arab World

     This study presents many internal and external challenges facing the Arab world, which have clearly affected performance of the Arab system. These challenges may be summarized as follows.

     The Arab world Faces many internal and external challenges which have, among others, clear effects on internal stability of the Arab countries and on their various institutions. Internal challenges include political, security, economic and social dimensions. Here, issues of political reform, democratization, human rights and dealing with extremism and internal violence, are among most prominent internal challenges, posing in various degrees in every Arab state.

     A clear conflicting relationship is noted between effects of internal extremism and violence, on one side, and paths of democratic change and preservation of human rights, on the other. Political reform and democracy, therefore, are the only way out of the extended and broad crisis. Both guarantee peaceful development of society and state in most Arab countries, as Arab communities have lived more than half a century under emergency rules, deprived of rights and freedoms, with weak partnerships, and lacking mechanisms of organized peaceful party performance.

     Food security and water security are among Arab important economic and social challenges. Water crisis, especially, has become a prominent issue in political and economic conflict in the Arab region, and may constitute a crisis fuse in regional conflicts. There are, also, poverty and national income misdistribution, where more than two-thirds of population live in low-income countries, and more than 70 million Arabs live under poverty line.

     Unemployment is a serious problem in the in the Arab world, Reasons of high unemployment rates and labor force growth rates vary in individual Arab countries. Such reasons are the outcome of weak economic performance, on one hand, and bad development orientation and weak educational–training programs, on the other. This situation has required deep economic reforms along open market path.

     Among Arab external challenges are security and political threats which constitute the most grave issues on the Arab arena. No individual Arab country can confront such challenges or put remedies for, as they require collective Arab efforts and potentials. Arab governments have adopted a positive attitude towards world war on terrorism. They, also, called for a distinction between terrorism and legal resistance of occupation and state terrorism.

     By the end of the cold war, and upon US participation as a main party in the ME peace process, according to Madrid conference, 1991, Washington began raising the democratic motto in the region as the new guarantee against threats of imbalance, and against new dangers of fundamental Islamic movements. Democracy, also is seen as a guarantee for the ME peace process, and aims at a new ME formula containing Israel as a direct regional party, having normalized peaceful relations with the Arab countries.

Among external challenges is the Arab national security which is affected by US and Israel's influence and its ownership of weapons of mass destruction.

     Internal economic and social challenges include foreign debts, as Arab economies, beginning from the nineties, suffer from very strong foreign pressures and challenges, with divest negative impacts on Arab economic integration process. Such pressures and challenges came following to US introduction of its globalization concept with its various political, economic, social and cultural dimensions, generally leading to US domination over both developed and developing countries.

     The new international environment has posed challenges to the Arab world to start institutional and economic reforms in order to avoid negative effects of such an environment to harvest expected benefits from changes and to contribute in their merging in this environment. But this trend moves toward a free and globalized economy and leads to shortcomings in Arab economy performance and to exhaustion of Arab funds in favor of foreign labors working in the Arab countries.

Research & Studies
Exit Strategy How to disengage form Iraq in 18 months

     The United States needs a new strategy to remove most of American and allied army units from Iraq with in 18 months, based on US interested, with least military, economic and political costs.

Research & Studies
Hamas's Next Step Finding the road to Palestine

     Hamas achieved an overwhelming victory in Palestinian parliamentary polls in January 2006. later on, US and its allies confronted Hamas with 'three demands': recognizing Israel right to exist, affirming commitment to all international agreements by Fateh,and renouncing violence.

     Interviewing key leaders of Hamas, they asserted the Israel should be asked to recognize Palestinian rights and their right in all territories occupied in 1967, paving the way for an agreement with Israel. Zaher put domestic rather than international affairs at top of Hamas agenda: "chining Palestinian house Zaher and Hania are among few of remaining Hamas leaders after Israeli missiles had killed many including Ahmed Yassin.

     Strong religious faith helped Hamas remain focused on its goals in spite of Israel's often lethal threads.

     Another factory may be added, Hamas unilateral cessation of attacks against Israel since March 2005. Hamas considered Israel's withdrawal a victory to the movement.

     Although Paris Agreement delineated a single "customs envelop" and gave complete freedom of trade between Israel and PA controlled areas, Israel, in practice, maintain tight control on such trade. It also destroyed key nodes of Palestinian economy.

     Hamas government speak now of taking Gaza out of Paris Agreement and opening trade links with Egypt. The movement and leaders do not expect holding talks with Israel in the near future as power equation is not yet balanced. They do not find difference between Israel leftists and rightist. But they paint a confident picture of Hamas political standing in the Middle East with support from many prominent political figures in the Arab world. At international level, Hamas believes in cooperation with other peoples, not in conflict.

     Palestinian – Israeli relations now seem to develop split between both sides, based on unilateral policies, which raises vital questions: Will Hamas government be able to exert its control over the whole of West Bank and Gaza?
This would not be easy. Fateh felt humiliated by election results. A confrontation between fateh and Hamas would not be easy won by the first, as the second have 5.000 trained fighters and the support of about the third of fateh – led security forces of 60.000. In addition to fateh's weak political position and internal divisions, Hamas may be problem in the West Bank because of weaker support and presence of Israeli forces.

How will Israel and internation community react to Hamas attempt to establish a PA government?
     Kadima led government and US may be happy with such a move. EU prefers Gaza's direct strong links with Egypt and EU itself. Olmert may give Hamas a chance and let aid come from non – Western countries, and leave Paris Agreement.

     Will Hamas be Able to cooperate with Egypt and other Arab and world countries?
Egypt and Jordan are the most Arab states having peace agreements with Israel. At political level, Egypt may be more ready than Jordan to support and work with Hamas leaders.

     What happens to relation between residents of Gaza and the West Bank if Hamas government pusue Gaza – first course?
Such a move would have a broad ramifications. Gaza's economy would be more tied to Egypt's, and regional and global economy than to Israel's.

Gaza's politics might become more attuned to Cairo than Ramaallah or Jerusalem. Ties with the WB would be lef for future.

      What are the prospects of Palestinian women and Christians?
Hamas is quite different from Taliban and al Qaeda, including attitude to women. Hamas pay a lot of attention to women's affairs and their tale in social actives, including education.

     Hamas leaders assured Christians absence of any intension to curtail a life style that includes availability of alchohol.

     Are Hamas "insiders" more flexible than Diaspora-based leadership?
When Hamas decided to enter "tahdi'eh", then elections, outside analysts began speculating that Hamas inside Palestine were ready for greater pragmatism and political flexibility than outside leadership. Indeed, insiders remain strongly committed to Hamas Charter, regarding all Palestine as their homeland, just as outsider do.

     What are prospects for Israel peace movement?
The Israeli peace movement seem ready to support talking to Hamas government. Israeli society is becoming less militaristic, more supportive of ending conflict and unilateral formula.

     What are US standing in the region if Olmert proceeds with his "Final borders" plan?
If he does so, with US support – as the plan includes East Jerusalem in the final boarders – Washington would face a tough dilemma, and its standing in the ME is bound to be harmed at a time of bad days in Iraq.

     Is there a way to soave thorny issues of Jerusalem, boarders and refugees?
Jerusalem is the most problematic aspect of Olmert plan, it is a central issue in the hearts of Palestinians and Arabs. Meanwhile the region remains plagued by considerable uncertainty. There seems no intention by Israel or US to resolve conflict in the near future.

Seminar
Europe and the Palestinian Issue Between Independent Historical Position and US, Israeli Pressures

Interview

Strategic Dimensions of Resistance Programs in Palestine and Lebanon on Israeli Military Security Strategy

       Director of the Middle East Studies Center, Mr. Jawad Al – Hamad, on 17-7-2006, conducted a telephoned dialogue with the Egyptian strategic military expert, general tal'at Musalam.

The dialogue dealt with nature of the confrontation between Israel and Hizb-Ullah in the north, and between Israel and Hamas and other Palestinian resistance factions, in the South; and whether such confrontation was tactical or of strategic dimension. The dialogue investigated reasons of escalation by Israel and its impacts, and whether Israel and its new government have been entangled in this battle.

Other questions were raised about both Parties potentials in the war and high tenacity use of Israeli air force, in the light of international and regional dimensions and of land and arm considerations. Some questions dealt with importance of people's endurance in the confrontation nature, in addition to the resistance role and performance in the battle.

The dialogue, also a discussed possible extension of the confrontation, regional extent of a potential wider confrontation, and impact of surprises Israel met in Gaza and south Lebanon, this situation would make Israel reconsider its strategies and its ability to open a wider regional front.

The discussion, in addition, focused on the nature of the present encounter. With Israel in the context of Arab – Israeli conflict, its future prospects, the role it will belay, and present hostilities' impacts on Israeli strategies and on such conflict.

The dialogue, lastly, dealt with the international side and confrontation effect on its position, international Policies and Israeli aggression, and possible American retreat in the face of strategic change in the Arab – Israeli balance through both Palestinian resistance and Lebanese resistance.

Reports and Articles

The External Challenges Facing Jordan

he external environment affects the internal policy of any state. Because of her location, Jordan is greatly affected by the surrounding political events which has a great impact on its internal decision-making process. The Kingdom serves as a role model for the small state surrounded by an environment of regional instability.

During the course of debate on the dangers facing Jordan and Egypt it can be discerned that Israel poses the greatest dangers on these states because of her ambitions and expansionist plans in the region despite the many agreements and conventions signed between it and a number of Arab states but which it has failed to commit to.

On the Palestinian issue, Israel tries to exploit the existing distinctive relationship between Jordan and Palestine to execute its expansionist plans for it wants to take the land and establish a state on all of the territory of Palestine.

As to the American occupation of Iraq, the embargo on that country which lasted for 10 years turned it from a politically, economically and militarily strong state into a weak one. The last American occupation that started in 2003 lead to the pilfering of Iraq's resources, the weakening of its people and the dissipation of their national resolve. Israel is taking advantage of this to create greater sectarian strife especially regarding the Kurdish issue.

The report addresses the American intervention in Arab countries, the opening of different files and projects such as the "The Greater Middle East Project", political and economic reform, and the fighting of what it calls terrorism to try to redraw the region's map in favor of American and Israel's interests something which will have tremendous political and economic impact on Jordan.

     The report showed Jordan faces different external challenges; it is the most affected country by the surrounding threats which needs the activation of joint Arab action and the creation of a new framework for greater Arab cooperation. In the last decades Jordan has always believed in strengthening Arab relations as elements of its own strength for an integrated society that has the ability to faces external challenges and stand steadfast against them.

Reports and Articles

Israel, the Police Keeping US interests in the Arab Region

     The report discusses the strong relationship between the United States and Israel, based on US interests in the Arab region, especially those related to oil issues. The report clarifies this relationship since establishment of the Zionist entity, development of oil prices, and the region's wars which exhausted oil revenue surplus invested in the West's banks.

The report reviews history of this issue after the World War II, changes in oil prices, in a game between Western States and oil companies operating in the Arab World. Where the later used to reduce prices for the benefit of industrial firms. The game reached a stage where US would threaten Arab countries and leaders in case they insisted on raising oil prices.

Israeli existence in the region and the role it plays represents both US and Israel's reciprocal interests: Israel strives to foster a strong and extending entity, while weakening other countries in the region; US, at the same time, would utilize the area's huge wealth and keep its states weak and unable to protest against low oil prices.

     The report cites important steps taken by West's industrialized countries, notably the US, to siege the region, and recontrol oil prices, amounts of production and revenues there of.

Reports and Articles

 The Iraqi Quagmire The American confusion and the scenarios of withdrawal from Iraq

     There is no doubt that the American administration suffers a serious dilemma in Iraq now. The American human and economic losses will not come to an end. Every day, American soldiers are killed, many tanks and military vehicles are subject to explosion. It seems that the hand of the Iraqi resistance is taller than what the American administration had expected.

Paul l.Bremer in his book "My year in Iraq" said: "It seems that the Iraqi insurgency movement is harder than what we thought."

Now there are many Americans people asking their administration to withdraw the American soldiers from Iraq. The democrats in the Congress press heavily to legislate a resolution to withdraw from Iraq.

Now, after more than 3 years of the invasion, more than 2500 Americans soldiers have lost their lives in Iraq and more than 200 billion dollars were have been spent After all that, what are the scenarios of withdrawal?

A. The 1st Scenario: The prompt withdrawal:

This scenario faces many objections:

1. The prompt withdrawal means that the American administration loses its war against terrorism since it considered Iraq as the main front of this war.

2. How can the American administration explain the invasion and its losses?

3. USA will lose its position as the unique pole in the world.

4. USA will not be able to interfere with the affairs of any other country in the world.

B. 2nd Scenario: withdrawal outside Iraqi cities:

This is an old scenario. It may reduce American losses, but it will clear the way for the sectarian militias to fill up the field which may lead to a horrible civil war.

C. 3rd scenario: Gradual withdrawal (Scheduled Withdrawal)

This scenario is adopted by several sides including Iraqi tawafuq front, Board of Muslims Scholars, National Dialogue Front, and others.

The Americans refuse this scenario for the following reasons:

1. This scheduling may encourage the Iraqi resistance to intensify their attacks against American troops.

2. This scheduling can not be announced unless Iraqi armed forces are ready to take over the security task.

D. 4th scenario: (achieving task)

This is the scenario that the American administration has adopted. American officials always emphasize that they will not leave Iraq until achieving their task in establishing a democratic, secure and stable country.

Reports and Articles

Will shar'eya Courts Control all Somalia?

Reports and Articles

Israel's Crimes Hides its Military and Security Failure

    This report discusses "Operation Scattering Illusion" that was orchestrated near the Abu Salem Vine Crossing, while analyzing its results, consequences and motives. It further highlights the Israeli aggression in the West Bank and Gaza before the operation that included assassinating resistance leaders, and the different massacres carried out against the Palestinian people with the one on the Gaza beach getting prominence. The resistance faced the aggression by carrying out a new operation on 25 June 2006.

It was carried out by three Palestinian factions and lead to the killing of two Israeli soldiers, wounding seven others and destroying an Israeli tank. In turn, two resistance leaders were killed while six others returned to Gaza with an Israeli prisoner, Jlaad Shaleet. The report points out the factions were willing to exchange the Israeli soldiers in turn for 1000 Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.

The report also outlined the consequences of the Israeli invasion of Gaza called Operation Summer Rains in which Israel kidnapped more than 60 Palestinian government officials and cut off electricity and water of the people living in the Strip.

     The report highlighted the fact that many in Gaza strip are suffering because of such Israeli action, discussing the Arab and international reactions on the formal and popular levels. There report has an appendix of the number of Palestinian prisoners held in the Israeli jails.

Reports and Articles

Fatah Needs a New Compass

fter the big win of Hamas in the last Palestinian Legislative Election in January, 2006, all political parties and factions, especially in Palestine, have been surprised at the Fatah position in seeking to frustrate all of Hamas's programs as an elected government. Observers are now saying Fatah has lost its political direction and compass as a result.

In a review of its perspectives since dominating the Palestinian political scene since the 1960s, we find that Fatah positions and policies have been retreating and changing especially in regard to the justness of the Palestinian rights and negotiations with Israel, the occupier.

     The development of the Palestinian cause and the increase of international and regional pressure on the Palestinian people and its national leaders require all factions and movements, especially Fatah, to leave its own personal interests aside and stress on the democratic approach rather than adopt conflict-ridden means as a way of applying pressure on Hamas. Such is not in the higher interests of the Palestinian people.

Reports and Articles

IRAN: CONSEQUENCES OF A WAR

    An air attack on Iran by Israeli or US forces would be aimed at setting back Iran’s nuclear program by at least five years. A ground offensive by the United States to terminate the regime is not feasible given other commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan, and would not be attempted.

An air attack would involve the systematic destruction of research, development, support and training centres for nuclear and missile programs and the killing of as many technically competent people as possible.

 A US attack, which would be larger than anything Israel could mount, would also involve comprehensive destruction of Iranian air defence capabilities and attacks designed to pre-empt Iranian retaliation. This would require destruction of Iranian Revolutionary Guard facilities close to Iraq and of regular or irregular naval forces that could disrupt Gulf oil transit routes.

Although US or Israeli attacks would severely damage Iranian nuclear and missile programmes, Iran would have many methods of responding in the months and years that followed.

These would include disruption of Gulf oil production and exports, in spite of US attempts at pre-emption, systematic support for insurgents in Iraq, and encouragement to associates in Southern Lebanon to stage attacks on Israel. There would be considerable national unity in Iran in the face of military action by the United States or Israel, including a revitalised Revolutionary Guard.

     One key response from Iran would be a determination to reconstruct a nuclear programme and develop it rapidly into a nuclear weapons capability, with this accompanied by withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty. This would require further attacks. A military operation against Iran would not, therefore, be a short-term matter but would set in motion a complex and long-lasting confrontation. It follows that military action should be firmly ruled out and alternative strategies developed.

Reports and Articles

"Beyond Haifa", Hizbollah's war with Israel

his paper provides a factual background of the war on Lebanon and Hizbollah in its early days. Through concrete developments and happenings on the ground demonstrated by different aspects of the war, the paper argues that new strategic realities and equations are being built that daily show Israel is no longer the awesome military power that once was in the Middle East. The paper shows Israel's destructive capabilities on a defenseless country like Lebanon but also examines the ability of a non-state actor like Hizbollah to put up stiff resistance, hold the Israeli army at bay, and hit Israel in its strategic depth. In a curious way the conflict should be called the war on Israel.

Reports and Articles

The National Accord Document: Winners and Losers

fter the Palestinian legislative election in January 25th 2006, in which Hamas won a great victory, there have been dramatic developments in the internal Palestinian arena. One of the challenges was the international and financial siege, which posed a huge pressure on the new Hamas-led government. Another problem was the anarchy that prevailed in Gaza, and to some extent in the West bank, as a result of ousting Fateh from government after becoming a minority in the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC).

The Palestinians felt that there must be a way out of this crisis. The PLC and president Abbas called for a national dialogue to establish a common ground for the factions, especially Fateh and Hamas. The dialogue was inaugurated on May 25th, and a number of initiatives were presented. Among those initiatives was what is known as "prisoners' document".

Prisoners' document is one of the most important initiatives that aim at achieving a Palestinian unity for the purpose of facing the Israeli convergence plan, and to seek an end to the international siege.

The document was considered important because it was drafted by the prisoners who were active leaders of the Palestinian national movement, and who have a good reputation and experience as political leaders. Moreover, the document came to redraw the Palestinian political map after the dramatic winning of the elections by Hamas, which is expected to become a major player in the political life in the future.

The document could be regarded as a way out of the crisis, marked by confrontations between Hamas and Fateh in Gaza, and the rise of protests calling for salaries, in addition to the stalemate in the political horizon. This document offers Hamas a national programme with which it can make a breakthrough in the international position which imposed a fierce siege on the Palestinians.

The document was also regarded as a way out for Fateh, which found itself out of cabinet after 40 years of monopolizing the policy-making. It opened the door for Fateh to return to "Authority" through a "national government". However, Hamas will stay as the largest bloc in the PLC, and will reserve the right to form such a government.

The document came after a strong struggle by Hamas to make reforms in the PLO, and to enable factions such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad to enter the Organization. Moreover, the document sets a general framework for future political and resistance movements. On the one hand, it attempted to make a balance between the resistance and the political compromise by stressing on the right of the Palestinians in resisting the occupation, and on the other hand, leaving the door open for future negotiations and diplomatic tracks to solve the conflict. It asserts that any political move should not relinquish any of the basic rights of the Palestinians.

One could argue that this document has undermined Hamas’ victory in the legislative elections. At the same time, the document subordinated Fateh’s defeat in the elections, given the fact that this defeat was difficult to accept neither by Fateh, nor by the USA, Europe, Israel, and even the Arab governments.

The document was regarded by some people as a tool to kick Hamas out of power through the referendum, which was suggested, and then decided, by president Abbas. The alternative, however, was to push Hamas to, implicitly, recognize Israel. Hamas was aware of these objectives, and thus dealt responsibly with the document. It was so difficult for Fateh to return to the Authority through the document, or through the referendum which would never form an alternative to the democratic and impartial elections.

      The document could be regarded as an achievement by all parties, especially Hamas which began to form a base for its new role as a major player in the Palestinian policy-making. Moreover, we may argue that the document is a good achievement for the Palestinian cause, given it will form a political reference for any future move, a reference that is composed by all Palestinian factions, and that would reserve the Palestinian national rights.