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Editorial American Policies Prepare The ME for Explosion
United States President George Bush emphasizes that the main American message since the occupation of Iraq has been to spread democracy and establish peace in the Middle East. But when Hamas won the elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council which was fair and square according to international observers, the United States began working against the Hamas government regardless of any consideration to democracy or popular representation. It started plotting against the new government, urging the European Union and some of its friends in the region to stifle Hamas and work against its program. Washington is fearful that the Hamas victory could create a domino effect and allow other Islamic movements in the region to take power through democratic means. Indeed, USA promises for democracy in the region are becoming hollow because of what it sees as other emerging factors of instability. Take the question of Iran and its nuclear program for instance. Bush is exerting much pressure to send the Iranian file to the UN Security Council to close in on Tehran as it did when it leashed its military arsenal on Iraq and occupied the country. The American designs on the region can also be discerned from her friendship for Israel which includes secretly supporting her nuclear weapons program. Presently the Israeli lobby in the US is exerting much effort to prompt the American administration to launch a military strike against Iran while squeezing the screws on Hamas to make certain it would collapse. And as such the immediate future for the region looks grim and likely to be exacerbated by the following factors: The US failure in Iraq, the possible strike against Iran, the denial of democracy in Palestine, the support for Israel and the reduction of popularity of the American president which means he is likely to be more tough in the immediate future. All this is likely to embroil the region in further conflict because of the popular frustration surrounding the Palestinian issue, the nature of the occupation and the dismay against American policy and some of the Arab and Islamic countries who support this. The next stage requires political stability, especially in enhancing support for the new Palestinian government, Iran, and Syria due to the following facts; 1-Relaying on American policy proved its failure in the last century. 2- Supporting the new Palestinian government is seen as a major requirement to avoid dangerous popular uprisings that may threaten the rest of the Arab regimes. 3- Supporting the new Palestinian government will enhance security and cooperation in the Arab and Islamic worlds. 4- Increasing the investments of oil revenues in the Arab world proved it's more worthwhile than investing in western countries. It is critical to establish strategic balance of forces with China, Russian and others. |
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The paper covers the past, present and expected future of Arab oil. It explains how harmful were the policies adopted by Western oil companies to the legitimate rights of Arab oil producing countries over a quarter of a century, specifically from the end of WW II to the War of October 1973. One feature of such harm was the very low revenue obtained by oil producers which did not exceed 30 cents per barrel valued in 1947 dollars. Other harmful aspect was the deprivation of oil producers from the benefits of oil refining industries which oil importing countries opted to locate in their territories. Likewise, oil producers were not allowed to develop their capabilities in petrochemical industries which provide generous value-added to GDP. Such value-added is estimated at $36 per barrel in the basic petrochemicals, and could be as high as $2600 if a barrel of oil is processed to final petrochemical products. Moreover, huge amount of Arab oil, which grew from one million barrel per day in 1950 to 22 million b/d in the mid-1970s, were moved to feed Western industries (in US, Europe and Japan) at such a negligible price of 30 cents valued in 1947 dollars. The paper further explains the inseparable relationship between the freedom of political will and the freedom to carry out oil policies that serve the real interests of the people in oil producing countries. The case of Iran failure to nationalize oil was mentioned. By contrast the Arab victory in October War, which liberated the Arab political will and regained Arab dignity, is explained in some detail. The shock received by Western countries was immediately reflected on the negotiation that was going on in Geneva over the period 8-12 October 1973 between the Gulf oil producers and the International Oil Companies (IOCs). The IOCs, which were in continuous consultation with major oil importing countries, could not raise the price of $3 by more than 46 cents. Supported by news of the miraculous cross of Suez Canal and battles on its East Bank, the Gulf oil producers withdraw from Geneva negotiation and met in Kuwait, joined by Egyptian oil delegation, to raise the price of oil, for the first time by producing countries, from $3 to $6 and, few days later, to $12 beginning 1974. Furthermore, the US was oil embargoed for providing Israel with $2.2 billion in military assistance, and likewise Holland and Portugal for their hostile attitude during the War. The major war gain of Arab oil procurers was great jumps of oil revenues from $14 billion in 1972 to peak at $213 billion in 1980. The Arab oil industry was also restructured in such a way as to restore from the IOCs national sovereignty rights over oil industries. Unfortunately, these gains could be maintained for long. A series of energy policies adopted by Western countries, individually, and collectively under the umbrella of the International Energy Agency, succeeded to pressure OPEC to close nearly half of its producing capacity and bring oil price down from $18 to $13 in 1986. Hovering around $18 over the period 1987-2000, the price of oil was actually dropping over this period to $4.50 in the 1973 dollars; the year which witnessed the adjustment of price from $3 to $12. Part of the blame is attributed to OPEC oil policy which was trapped in over-production starting 1979, thus, allowing Western counties to build a huge Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) and use it to control oil market and pricing. The paper also tackles the distribution of oil rent between oil exporting countries and oil importing countries. Having imposed nearly 70% of taxes on oil products consumption, oil consuming countries, specially in Western Europe, have been able to capture more than 80% of net oil rent, leaving only a minor share for oil producers. In a move to correct the imbalance between the two sides, the writer explores the possibility of upgrading oil price based on objective criteria. A current price of $50 for OPEC Basket Barrel (ORB) at present should be allowed to escalate according to a complex rate of growth composed of three elements: the rate of inflation, the rate of demand growth, and the change of dollar value vis-à-vis other basic currencies. The paper finally investigates the anticipation of growing oil scarcity over the foreseeable future, together with diminishing number of oil exporting countries. If these come true, which the writer concurs with, oil markets will get tighten and require rational policies of production and pricing. No doubt, this will be the major responsibility of a small number of oil producers, the core of which are Arabs. However, those Arabs should not be left alone to face Western pressure, and they have to be supported by non-oil Arabs who have leverages in other areas. The case of October War is recalled as an example of real consolidation. The ultimate outcome of both development and enhanced Arab role in world politics and economics will depend on whether the fruits of such consolidation in oil policies will be reinvested in pan-Arab integrated projects or migrate again to Western banks where they become subject to inflation and other political risks. |
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The researcher investigates the new Russian policy in the Middle East and Palestinian cause, contextualizing it in a historical perspective, and dwelling on the reasons for Moscow's return to the region and asks about its spicifity and likely effect on the political process in Palestine and Israel. The researcher indicates the Russian role has been in part minimized by American efforts and will to dominate relations, and in light of the fact of its special relationship with Israel. The research investigates the following assumption: Russian foreign policy towards the Palestinian cause has been constant, and influenced by the changes on the international arena. Russia sees its role as critical as regards to the Palestinian issue in the region, and in spite of the sensitivities of the conflicting parties and their interests. The Russian endeavor to be an independent international actor is far from the American vision, following a different policy and position. As such the Russian policy enhances the Palestinian position as underlined by her new policy in the Middle East. But in spite of this Russia has a wider flexible approach, maneuvering to sustaining its relationship with the United States and Israel to serve her own interests but unfortunately not those of Palestinians. As a result the researcher states that Russian foreign policy in the Middle East and towards the Palestinian Cause is not stable. However, this does not mean there is an absence of balance in Russian policy and positions. Also, and at the same time, Russian policy maintains a balance in the relationship with all parties. In conclusion, the historical review indicates Russian policy is specified by her own interests. Her policy toward the Palestinian cause is affected by other factors including its own internal problems, the Israeli-Russian relationship and American-Russian rapport in addition to other regional factors. Also, Russia aims at remaining a vital actor in the international arena to maintain its position and not to dwindle into obscurity. Thus it sees the Palestinian Cause as vital factor in that. |
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This research discusses the most critical change of the Palestinian cause before the Palestinian legislative elections, analyzing the consequences of the Hamas victory since it received the majority of the seats in the Legislative Council. And hence the research discusses the debate of progress and retreat for achieving the interests of the Palestinian people under the Hamas leadership. The research addresses in depth these changes and its future prospects under three perspectives; the first discusses the impact of the legislative elections on establishing democracy in Palestine, discussing the most important challenges that faced the political system before the elections. It also showed the effects of these elections in overcoming these challenges and creating a political environment for developing a Palestinian society based on interaction, rotation in authority and leadership and administrative organization. The second perspective discusses the most important challenges that might face Hamas in leading the Palestinian cause; the research divided the challenges into two kind: First, internal challenges relate to Hamas itself as a resistance movement on the one hand, and entering the political arena and involved in political practice on the other. The second kind is the external challenge that of the occupation and of western support to Israel, and this is in addition to the stresses posed by the Palestinian political system and forces. The third perspective is the view of Hamas to the peace process, especially the program and policy of the new Palestinian government, and how the Islamic movement intends to deal with the coming situation. The research points out that it is essential to have a political system based on plurality and multiplicity to keep alive the Palestinian collective experience and cause. |
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The 25 January date is considered a distinct shift in the Palestinian movement and the future of the Palestinian political system. The changes were produced by the second parliamentary elections in Palestine, where the Hamas movement received the majority of the Legislative Council seats (74), and which led to a reformulation of the Palestinian political map and shake up of the balance of forces in the Palestinian arena. Hamas won the mandate to become the next elected Palestinian government and now has the responsibility for providing solutions for the burdens of the Palestinian Authority accumulated over the last decade. The elections signaled the retreat of Fatah to second place after dominating the Palestinian political leadership in the last four decades, controlling all three branches of government, the executive, legislative and judicial authorities. The researcher sheds light on the new Palestinian political system after the second parliament elections, showing the changing relations in the balance of forces and emphasizing the political conditions that prevailed during the polls. But the study was forward looking as well, concentrating on different issues facing Hamas, especially its relationship with the Palestinian Liberation Organization, its relationship to the Palestinian Presidency, the Islamic view to the prevailing political, social and economic situations, and finally how the new government looks to the international community, and wants to establish links with it. The research addressed the reasons for the Fatah retreat and the nature of the relationship between it and the new government while analyzing what happened to the Palestinian left and its failure to become a credible alternative either to Hamas or to the Fatah movement. Such analysis however must be seen in its totality, relaying on a social formation that influenced the political authority and affected social forces and civil society institutions, women organizations and student movements in the Palestinian arena which in turn impacted the second legislative elections on a large scale. |
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Palestinian Democracy Establishes Peaceful "Rotation of Authority" in The Arab World The report analyzed in depth the Palestinian legislative elections carried out in 25 January, since it is being seen as a live example of the rotation authority in the Arab World that is evolving peacefully. At first, the report displayed the results of the elections in results, then it addresses the reasons for the Hamas victory and the Fatah retreat in the Palestinian arena. The report also showed the consequences of the election results on the local, regional and international levels. In conclusion, it discusses the formation of the Palestinian government and its political agenda program which it would try to execute. |
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Arab & Palestinian Pollicies needed to Direct Possible Scenarios of The Arab–Israeli conflict through 2015: An Academic Workshop – Cairo- 23 February, 2006 The report displayed the most important conclusions of the academic workshop under the title of "The required programs and policies for Palestinians and Arabs to direct the possible scenarios of the Arab-Israeli conflict through 2015". The workshop was organized by the Middle East Studies Center in cooperation with the Political Research and Studies Center in Cairo on 23 February, 2006. The workshop presented many recommendations to develop the Arab position and support the best scenario for the resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict in the future. |
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Perspectives from the "East Conference" in Turkey The so-called "Conference of the East" was held in Turkey under the patronage of the Istanbul Municipality, 9-13 November 2005, addressing critical issues facing the region through the eyes of experts and analysts. Participants discussed what it's like to living in the Middle East today under the domination of the American system. The venue presented an in depth look into the problematics of bureaucracy in the region, the issues of democracy and human rights and in addition to the prevailing situation of women. These internal factors and inputs were contextualized within the relationship between East and West, and the challenges facing the region dovetailed through recurring factors of resistance, legitimacy and terrorism which is seen as external impinging itself on the region. Jawad Al-Hamad, director of The Middle East Studies Center, discussed the perspectives of the next stage and the Israeli conception of peace as underpinned by her parochial view of putting her security first and went on to talk about intractable issues of resistance and negotiations. A communiqué was issued in the end calling for serious dialogue and the development of shared ideas based on the unity of eastern nations who live within one geographical region and emphasizing the strengthening of Middle East civil societies to direct them to respond positively to internal and external challenges. The participant emphasized the importance of mobilizing the abilities and energies of these civil societies to resist in the strongest possible way what is seen as a new "savage imperialism" led by the American state and her western allies in cooperation with Israel. |
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Israeli Reactions to Hamas Victory in Palestinian Legislative Elections 2006 This report sheds light on the initial Israeli reactions to the victory of the Hamas movement in the last Palestinian legislative elections carried out on 25 January. It also addresses the impact of the Hamas victory on the election programs in Israel. The report concluded that the positions of the different political forces in Israel described the Hamas victory as a political earthquake. They unanimously refuse to negotiate with the Islamic movement if it doesn't recognize Israel on the one hand and if it still insists on having its own weapons on the other. |
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Reports and Articles Symposium on "Arab-Israeli conference through to 2015: Possible scenarios", Perspectives of the conflict through 10 years The conference on Arab-Israeli scenarios was organized by the Middle East Studies Center in Amman, 17-29 November 2005 with the participation of more than 65 researchers and politicians from different Arab countries. They presented 40 scientific research papers which addressed 11 pivotal aspects of the Arab-Israeli conflict and the likely ways of dealing with them in the next 10 years, in addition to five speeches in the opening session. The conference set out plans to draw scenarios through the next 10 years to help Arab decision makers to formulate effective plans and make decisions regarding the Arab-Israeli conflict. The conference addressed in depth the different pivotal problems of the Arab-Israeli conflict and their impact on the last century proceeding to the 21st century. The conference firstly ironed out the intellectual and civilizational aspects of the conflict and how these are likely to develop through till 2015, and provided a rigorous futuristic analysis of how resolutions to the Conflict are likely to develop in the next decade in the light of the regional and international transformations rapidly happening in the world. Participants also tackled the political, social and economic challenges of both sides of conflict, the future of the conventional and unconventional strategic balance of forces, the role of public organizations like the media, the problematics of building the Arab-Israeli scenarios through till 2015… and the options of both parties and their alternatives. Four possible scenarios were formulated for dealing with the conflict and give the Arab decision-maker, official, politician and planner the leeway and ability to deal effectively with the changing situation on the ground. Future perspectives are crucial to help change Arab priorities and provide practical tools for action. |
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Reports and Articles Symposium "Chinese -Arab Relationship" in Beijing 2005 The first symposium on Arab-Chinese relations and the civilization dialogue was held in the Chinese capital within the framework of the Chinese-Arab Cooperation initiative which started in 2004 between the Arab League and the Chinese government. The symposium was for two days (11-12 December, 2005) with the participation of 40 academics, experts and researchers from the Arab world and around 30 from China itself. The symposium was held to achieve greater understanding and create programs, seminars and channels of dialogue to enhance the relationship between China and the Arab world and firmly establish a civilizational dialogue, discuss the implications of the new international relations in the new century and Millennium. The meeting place played a critical role in supporting dialogue and cultural continuity between both the Arab world and china, emphasizing their joint interest and the importance of shedding light on these through the presentation of academic and scientific research papers about what should be the directions of the Arab-Chinese relationship in the new century and in forging better cooperation based on economic exchange. |
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