Issue 28



Iraq after a year of Occupation Actuality and Future

      A year of the American occupation has been elapsed, since 9th April 2003, Iraq is burdened with the instability, disorder and political, economical, social chaos, whence US could not "at the same time" achieve its declared and undeclared strategic goals. This occupation caused within a year to create a great imbalance in the different regions to the advantage of US ability increment to play on the disagreements and dissimilarity of interests of the parties in the area.

A local ruling council was formed to assist in administering the local affairs which was encompassing all Iraqi political and social parties, it was formed in accordance to the sectarian and dual races as the Iraqi society is consisting of. After than more one year of occupation. The Civil Authority was handed over in June 30, 2004 and parts of securities devoted to bridle and repress resistance against occupation to a Temporary Iraqi Government. It was formed according to the same standards of the Local Ruling Council, in exception to some technocratic changes where having a connection with maintaining some of ministerial services and under the control of Occupation directly.

According to such trends in managing Iraq. The reaction of Iraqis were in conflict towards the new Political and Security Authority, and controlling security is being the important standard for an Iraq Citizen to judge upon this Government, despite the reservations that many expressed against establishing this Government and its relations with the occupation forces. But, despite it was supported with an UN decision, apparently, this Government was confronted with mixed resistance before it handled the affairs, yet the cooperation is limited from most of the World Countries including the neighboring Islamic and Arab countries since the Iraqi Government is politically illegitimate.

On the other hand, the resistance could impede which is named reconstruction and the foodstuff provisions to US forces through various kidnapping operations. Tens of companies withdrew from Iraq to preserve the lives of their employees. Moreover, those resistance forces could crack largely the philosophy of collation in Iraq, besides US when the Philippians forces responded directly to the demands of the kidnappers to one of its citizens in-spite of those forces are fifty in number. Whereas, this symbolic withdrawal, made apprehension to the US Administration. And implied that such withdrawals will increase.  This Provoked Us to political vast moves to maintain such remained collations. Specially after the withdrawal of Spanish and Hinders forces and arise of other countries to withdraw their forces, but US could not convince the Arab and Islamic Countries to send their forces despite the pressure and the menace and incitements that US put on them, and the initiation of others to help in providing a legal cover to such trends until this publish had been issued.

Meanwhile, and in a manner of effectiveness, Resistance continued to increase in what is called Sini triangle. The interference of Kurds (Bashmerkah) forces and (Bader forces) which belongs to the “Higher Islamic Revolution Council” -who are allaying with US occupation- were a factor of agitating intention. Yet such interference could not curb the Resistance operations despite the continuous increase of victims that incurred in the Iraqi Police Forces who are related to the Temporary Iraqi Government in comparison to the US forces decrease victims.  Upon this the Temporary Iraqi Government and the occupying forces is endeavoring to accuse the Resistance of riots and disorder against the Iraqis and not against the Occupation. Its Iraqi allies and US tried in vainly to blame a non-Iraqi Islamic Political Powers and neighboring Arab countries of financing the Resistance to rivet in a large scale its nationality as Iraqis. The Iraqi and Arab streets hadn’t been convinced by such allegations, and considered that the occupation is actuating the acts of sabotage against the Iraqi Civilians as an endeavor to mix up matters and to attenuate the support that resistance receives from the Iraqi people. But the trend was opposite towards escalation of Resistance against Occupation from the side of Al Mahdi Army, which, refers to "Muqtda Al Sader" who defies the decisions of high Shi’i Referential Authorities, who magistrates not to use arms against Occupation, racing to give the Occupation a historical right to rule Iraq. As will as the increase of the confronts at the Holy (Najaf City) for the Shia’a Party [which attained a big proportion in the Temporary Government] represents an exploding point for the Occupation and the Temporary Government as will.

On the other hand, first services concerning Electricity, Water, Transportation, Banking, Business and employment all are still suspended and represents challenges before this Temporary Government which it is supposed to leave in the end of the year via general elections in accordance to the Security Council Decision. It seams that the burden of security and resistance confrontation is the substitute of Occupation. Those are deviating the Temporary Government to have attention to civil activities, which was the most important rout to a kind of a legitimate government for most of the citizens. Hereinafter its contribution in security against Resistance and other Iraqi political powers, which resist the occupation, is a cause to widen the suspicion and the uncertainty in such Government.

Regarding the International Community, yet still hesitant to support the US inclinations in Iraq despite the Security Council decision to hand over what was name Authority. Specially in connection of sending Armed Forces to Iraq, but yet the problem of neighboring countries arising between accusing Iran in intervening in Iraqi affairs, and Syria of supporting the resistance, besides the Turkish tension towards the Kurds in north of Iraq.    All these challenges are stumbling blocks in the way of America and the Temporary Iraqi Government.

Generally, the status of political, security, economy and instability describe the Iraqi Scene after a year of Occupation. Violence from parties having different aims and purposes -in between- the resistance against US Occupation, and the unsuccess of US to find out a regional support to its plan (program) as will as to the Government which US made in Iraq. Also the suspicion increased toward US Intentions rather than the Temporary Government and its inability to augment the daily needs of the inhabitants who believe that this is done intentionally by the Occupation. Specially water and electricity. Moreover, the inference of US in the Iraqi social affairs and education affairs. Meantime encouraging of worse social ethical freedom, in addition to the scandalous practices that the Occupation Forces practiced against the prisoners in different prisons specially the famous one (Abu Ghareeb) which reached to kill the humanity character in the prisoners  souls, in addition to humiliate their indignity and honor. This was considered a part from the “crusade war”, which the President Push declared at that time when he said; this is a tongue lapse!

In connection to future, there are scenarios are being circulated to various levels epitomized as followings:

1-   The success of the Temporary Government in eliminating the armed resistance in all Iraqi districts. Some believe this is a long-term task if it succeeds right from the beginning.

2-   In case the Temporary Government succeeds in the free and dispassionate elections, this will rescue Iraq from the interior crises, but the presence of the US Forces will be considered an impediment factor. Whereas this may change such Government as an indirect alliance with the Resistance against Occupation. This may lead to unify the Political and Martial efforts to drive out the US Occupation from the Iraq.

3-   Alterations of US Administration Policies that to withdraw its Forces as what had happened in Somalia after a year of failure in establishing stability. The nature of things and the courses of realities impose them selves. But the American goals and the existing US Administration policies and suggestions of the substitute democratic administration, in case of success, regarding the Iraqi Issue implies that the situation differs from the Somali one, that was by a self political decision.

But for Iraq, the International Community and Regional pressure will achieve the withdrawal of Occupation. In the same time, this interlocked with the second scenario.

4-   The Resistance could cause heavy losses among the Occupation Forces and compel the Occupation withdraw gradually within a schedule and achieving some agreements concerning the mutual interests inclusive oil issue.

5-   The development of the Neighboring Countries and the Islamic Ones positions to disjoin from the American program to the favor of liberal and independent parties in Iraq. Including the political powers that possess martial branches to resist the Occupation, thereafter to encourage constructing an independent Iraqi Government could make decent elections, which will return Iraq to the Arab World, and supports to build an independent democratic Iraq.

After a year of Occupation, those scenarios indicate an immaturity but the last two scenarios represent an Iraqi choice towards the region for the short term at the time of seriousness and an independent political will. As the first choice represents big chance in the regional powers that may effect in geopolitical structure in the area, this is an autonomous Iraqi choice, but requires regional and public support.

But other scenarios are linked with the American Administration will, which does not expect to make initiative step to present a realistic and practical solution for free Iraq, which seams it is captured by its objectives related to Oil and other. That will make the Arab public an official role, in addition to Turkish and Iran roles a decisive role to put a pressure on the US Administration to change its political trends and tend towards Arbizing Iraq, and not making it an international country, at the same time helps its people to meet and to plan for a promising Iraq instead of indulging Iraq in an interior violence to the favor of the hostile occupying forces.

Hopefully the coming few months will preponderate the direction of some of these scenarios in comparison of the others.



Opening Article  

Iraq after a year of Occupation Actuality and Future

Researches & Studies  

Arab pressure cards on US Policies

Dr. Ahmad Al-Bursan

Towards an Arab Bloc Strategy

Dr. Abdul Jabbar Al-Nu'aimi
Reports and Articles  
Decision of International Court of Justice On the Separation Wall in Palestinian  
Israeli Violations in Rafah Camp  
The winner researchers in the 6th round of the "research competition for Jordanian Universities Students 2003"  
The Arab Summit in Tunisia  

Peace Process in the Israeli Media


Peace Process in the Middle East

Special Section  
Iraqi Occupation in a Year  



Researches & Studies

Arab pressure cards on US Policies


      The Arab World possessed the factors of power and its material and moral elements. They also own the creed that could provoke the power of the nation to defend it self and interests. Such a power needs political skills and will be monopolized to serve Arab issues and face dangers threatening the regional regime and the Arab nation itself.

This study seeks to show Arab Power which could be used to influence the United States to change its policies. It emphasizes that the US hegemony over the International Law, doesn't mean that its power can't be influenced, especially when the Arab Countries own the resources of energy and vital interests of the US such as oil.

Some of the Arab power factors that have been studied are:

1.    Geographical location.

2.    Economic resources and energy (petrol and natural gas).

3.    Arab investments in the US.

4.    US and Arab public opinion as a tool of political pressure.

5.    Arab community in the US.

6.    Trade relations.

7.    Mass Media and political pressure.

8.    Strategies of International Coalition.

This Study explored the elements of power and clarified as well, the ways of dealing with these elements in compressing the USA. It also shows the best mean of getting advantage of this element.

The study showed that the Arabs, as people and Governments, possess the components of power which need a creed that is connected to the reality and a will. Despite all these fabulous constituents which might never be available to any other area, at the least in the South countries.  Arab differences and disputes aborted such empowerment to be active.

The crises that Arab World is stuck to encourage the reconsideration of the relation between ideology and power. Such attitudes might bring about the Arab World to be main player in shaping at least word policies towards the region. The study showed such dilemma that emerged from the political situation in the region especially as for the occupation of Iraq and the continuous occupation of Palestine.

Researches & Studies

Towards an Arab Bloc Strategy

        Arab relations can't be separated from its subjective or objective frame, thus this will lead to the necessity over finding new formations that couldn't neglect the object or ignore the subject, other wise it will search for the essential balances that could flow in its final outcome into a manner through which it could enhance the national identity and activate the Arab performance on the objective level.  Besides working on activating formations of opened and balanced relations within the international and regional environment.

If these authorities represent an access to the new century, so, the clear and prevailing feature of it is that it characterized with a certain negativism in its inlets and outlets and thus, it moved with this description to the new era.

These factors can't be adopted with general possessiveness as far as the relaxes characteristic represents an un-ascending (descending) state by the current Arab situation.

Despite the fact that the Arab weren't concerned with the millennium ideology, but what characterized the first AD Century is that it is attached to Arab Islamic sublimity changed in the 2nd millennium, as it turned from that who where ((producing)) the civilization to a consumer of its ((products)), so what could be organized as an Arab demands with the beginning of the third millennium?

One can say that as a nation decide to plan its future, it should look after the actual tie between the lofty future and its practical image reality, in a way that this lie will not based on a political oration which is devoid of its material contents.

The materialistic outlets of this cooperation and coordination which could be established practically on the ground, they can be touched by the Arab Citizen and used as starting point. The Arab political regime should pay attention to them as far as they can achieve a development and common result.

The "coalition" can be defined as "The active coordination and direction of a general policies in a certain area according to an agreed upon bases between the concerned sides to achieve common aims, and this doesn't mean a full identification limits among these sides". The analysis of this concept will lead to the assignment of coalition's factors.

In an Arab reality aimed at being absent from the human development movement and looked at as being considered a consuming quality rather than a producing quality, besides being planned to be a playing ground rather that a player. Thus we can see that the whole Arab policy has started the stage of moving the new era in positive appearances let aside its philosophies and processions. And whether we considered that as a sort of (re-consciousness) to some, or enhancing beliefs to others, or developing ideas, we must not stop at the boundries of these details, what is important now is not enrolling in matches of priorities but in racing time towards the development.

Reports and Articles

Decision of International Court of Justice On the Separation Wall in Palestinian

       According to a demand from the General Assembly of the United Nation, the International Court of Justice discussed the subject of the racial wall, Israel is bolding in the West Bank. After seven months of judicial negotiation, the court have decided that this wall is breaching the International Law, and yet it should be removed, and to compensate those whom their properties have been seized for building the wall. The American Judge Bourgental, member of the courts' judges, was the only one out of 15 members who voted against the decision

Arabs and Palestinians' circles have welcomed the decision considering it as an important Judicial Victory in the battle of the wall. On the other hand, the Israeli government considered it as an alignment from the court and the general assembly of the UN to the Palestinian side. Israel accused the court of disregarding the causes that pushed Israel for building the wall.

The European reaction was clearly distinguished by supporting the decision, as the European Union called upon Israel to remove the wall, in-spite of what they call as a full understanding to the reasons that pushed it to build the wall.

       As for the USA, it refused the decision, considering the court as an unsuitable place to discuss an issue of political dimensions.

Reports and Articles

Israeli Violations in Rafah Camp

       A great number of occupation forces backed up by helicopters swept into the City of Rafah and its Camp for the second time during May, last month.

The outcome of the crimes committed in the city and its camp from 13/5/2004 to 24/5/2004, were as follows:

56 Palestinians were martyred, 45 of them were unarmed civilians, among which were 10 children, besides the injury of 200 other civilians, most of them were badly injured. The destruction of 360 houses, 220 of them were completely damaged and 140 were partly affected. The number of families living in these houses, were 824 family composed of 4847 members in addition to severe damages that reached 117 houses inhabited by hundreds, besides the shoveling of more than 700 donems of agricultural lands with special equipment.

These forces also destroyed 46 shops and a number of establishments and Civil properties among which are mosques and graveyards, and they destroyed the infrastructure.

International reactions

The Security Council adopted a decision condemning Israel of destroying houses in the city of Rafah and killing Palestinian Civilians in Gaza Strip by Israeli army.   Secretary General of the Arab League, Amr Mousa, welcomed the endorsement of the International decision, expressing the League's desire in implementing it immediately.

From his side, the Egyptian President "Husni Mubarak" called upon the peace guarding countries in the Middle East, to immediately intervene to stop the unjustified Israeli hostile activities against the unarmed Palestinian People.

The United Arab Emirates condemned the Israeli "hostile activities" against the Palestinian People describing it as "not serving the peace in the area".

Morocco expressed its deep concerns to what is described as a dangerous escalation witnessed by the Palestinians in the occupied territories.

In one of the severest International reaction, condemning Israel, the Turkish Prime Minister "Rajab Ardogan" , said that; the operations targeting the Iraqis and the Palestinians has increased to an extent that turned to become a state of terrorism.

Reports and Articles

The winner researchers in the 6th round of the "research competition for Jordanian Universities Students 2003"

      The national project which started since 1998, aims at developing  the skill of scientific research among the students of the Jordanian Universities in various fields.

This competition is arranged annually under the supervision of a committee formed from the organizers Universities cordially with the Middle East Studies Center (MESC).

Here are the researches that won the three prizes for the 6th round:

The first

The impact of Iraq occupation on the International order (A study of the consequences of Iraq occupation on the structure and the future of the international order).

The second

The impacts of E-commerce on the economic development in the Arab Countries and their internal trade.

The third (re-iterated)

The concepts and trends of Al-Mafraq City citizens towards human transcription and its social impacts.

The third (re-iterated)

The Israeli allegations about Jerusalem and Al-Aqsa Mosque.

The third (re-iterated)

The impact of the Jordanian-American Free Trade Zone (FTZ) on Jordanian industry.

Reports and Articles

The Arab Summit in Tunisia

     The Arab Summit has held in Tunis during the last week of March 2004. The Summit's decision was postponed, at the event of killing head of Palestinian Uprising Sheikh Ahmad Yassin then. The Summit held again at the same day the Israeli forces attacked a peaceful demonstration in Rafah, at the same time the US Jet Fighters bombed an Iraqi wedding Western Iraq.

The sudden decision of postponing the summit has been a confusing puzzle to all those who follow the Arab issue.

Reasons and allegations behind postponing the Arab summit, varied. While some analysts pointed out to the differences in the opinions of the Arab Foreign Ministers, others hinted at the disagreement about some items in the agenda. And some pointed to the fact that there are representatives from Hamas movement and the Islamic Jihad among the Palestinian delegation, besides American pressure for postponing it.

Iraq's representation in the Summit was confusing as an important question was raised, is it possible for the Summit to decide the part that will represent Iraq, or it should wait until Iraq gets back its sovereignty?

In the Palestinian file, a plan of Arabic move was raised to activate the peace initiative which was adopted during Beirut Summit in March 2002, and it can be briefed in not having any objection in establishing relations with Israel on condition of its full withdrawing from the Arab Land it occupies and reaching a fair solution to the Palestinian refugees issue.

The only issue in the Summit which differs completely from other ones is that concerning with democracy and comprising of issues which we never find on the agendas of any other Summit, like extending the participation in the political life and enhancing the Civil Society besides equality and human rights in addition to freedom, forgiveness and other issues related to Democracy.

Reports and Articles

Peace Process in the Israeli Media

     The United States of America has launched its last initiative "The Road Map" plan to fulfill the peace process in the area, when the military action and Palestinian resistance ((were escalating)). As such the American administration was not able to impose it on the disputing parties in the area.

According to the incapability of the Israeli government and army, to face the Palestinian resistance, Sharon reached a certainty that the military solution has become an impossible choice, so, he turned to withdraw plan from Gaza and remove Colonies as he believes that the didn't represent any military importance to the Israeli security.

Sharons' initiative evoked the objection of his Chief of Staff, Chairman of the military intelligence branch "Aman", head of "Shabak", and nation security council. It seems that the main point of the conflict is that the chief of staff and central generals, believed in reaching an agreement with the Palestinian by forcing them in different fields and untied the link as a one side step, and others opposed the plan as it might harm the Palestinian and Israeli economy.

The American point of view agreed with Sharon's Plan to fully withdraw from Gaza and gradually pull out from the Colonies in the Bank to facilitate the withdrawing operation from the West Bank. While the Palestinians should fight the what is so called "The Terrorisim" in the evacuated areas.

A time program has been prepared to implement the plan according to "3" stages, the last of which is to be ended on September 2005.

Reports and Articles

Peace Process in the Middle East

       Different peace initiatives have been intensified lately by different parts for reaching a peaceful political solution for the Palestinian question.

Among these solutions, is to discredit the Palestinian's rights and achieving the interests of the Israeli Government through an Arab part which it is Egypt.

The Israeli Government headed by Sharoon, is facing a real crises following the withdrawal of the National Union Party from the Government on the event of refusing Sharon's plan to withdraw from Gaza. And it is obvious that the religious national party "Al-Mifdal" is withdrawing too. As such, the choices are limited at the front of Sharon.

The committee in-charged of mediation between the Israeli Government and the Palestinian authority, has announced a working plan for the sake of the Israeli withdrawing from Gaza Strip, comprising suggestions for reforming the Palestinian Security department and supporting it financially.

Among all these statements and efforts, Egypt has put forth a special initiative on Israel and Palestinian authority related to a designated plan and it comprised security sides which enable the Palestinian authority to control the sector as Israel withdraw from it. Egypt and Israel also reached a deal of increasing the Egyptian military existence on the boundaries with Gaza Strip without forming the peace process signed between them in 1979, and decided forms common committee to discus the axial role which enable Egypt to carry out in Gaza as Israel withdraw from it.

What ever the case it could be, talking about reaching an agreement, has failed with Israel declaring its refusal of withdrawing from Philadelphia's crossing point.

Any how, one cannot overlooked the field events, as the operations of penetrating and tracking members of resistant continued, so, talking about reaching an understanding on the short run, is impossible from the point of view of the Palestinian's movements of Resistance, which a latest survey revealed an increment in  its popular support.

Special Section

Iraqi Occupation in a Year

      The center of the Middle East Studies has held a symposium under the title ( A Year after Iraq's Occupation).

The symposium includes three main important topics; The Occupation and the Iraqi reaction, the Arab and International stances, The government and handing over the authority, and the future of Iraq during the coming six months.

The participants pointed out that the American occupation has no project in Iraq rather than occupying the country and over throw its ruling regime, for the occupier has not taken any procedure indicating any desire for development or wish for evolution, rather, the occupying power destroyed the agricultural and industrial structure and cancelled all the civilian institutions except the Ministry of oil.

The Iraqi reaction was to resist the occupation power. The participants in the symposium emphasized that the resistance has been concentrated in Sunnite districts due to the original attitude adopted by the popular leaders and authorities legitimacy of the armed resistance, and dissatisfaction of most of these leaders with peaceful resistance which the Shi'it authorities declared.

 The activities and operations of the Iraqi resistance were increased because of the decisions and serious measurements adopted by the American Government.

As regards holding over the authorities, the American administration desires to hold over a kind of authority to the Iraqis to administer the state, and this may give the occupation an international and regional legitimacy. This authority enables the government to maintain peace and control the resistance. So that the American administration can exert itself to drive advantage from the Iraqi oil, and other sources of wealth and money.

In-spite of these procedures, the existence of Government cannot decrease the activities of the Iraqi resistance, according to nationalist and Islamic missions.